000 AGXX40 KNHC 230609 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 209 AM EDT TUE OCT 23 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE FIRST STRONG COLD FRONT OF THE FALL/WINTER SEASON CAME ROARING THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND CURRENTLY TAKES A POSITION FROM NEAR NEW ORLEANS LA SW TO BUOY 40255 IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO NEAR VERACRUZ MEXICO. LISTED BELOW ARE A FEW OF THE HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS REPORTED BEHIND THE FRONT SO FAR. NOAA BUOY 42019.....31 GUST 41 KT SEAS 13.8 FT NOAA BUOY 42020.....35 GUST 43 KT SEAS 13.8 FT NOAA BUOY 42002.....37 GUST 45 KT SEAS 17.7 FT NOAA BUOY 42055.....37 GUST 45 KT WITH HIGHEST 1-MIN WIND 39 KT CORPUS CHRISTI TX...30 GUST 44 KT BROWNSVILLE TX......28 GUST 43 KT TAMPICO MX..........40 GUST 50 KT VERACRUZ MX.........25 GUST 35 KT THE EVENING 0036 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS HAD NO PROBLEM DEPICTING GALE FORCE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NW AND SW GULF...AND EVEN SHOWS A FEW BELIEVABLE 50 KT VECTORS JUST OFFSHORE TAMPICO. IN LIGHT OF THIS...WILL GO AHEAD AND ALLOW THE STORM WARNING TO BEGIN OVER THE SW GULF AT THIS TIME. FOR THE NW GULF...GALES WILL BE LINGERING OVER THE SW PART EARLY THIS MORNING THEN SHOULD BE BELOW WARNING CRITERIA BY AFTERNOON. STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SW GULF UNTIL TUE EVENING THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH...DROPPING BELOW WARNING CRITERIA SOME TIME WED MORNING. FOR SEAS...THE UKMET WAVE MODEL APPEARS TO BE HANDLING THE INITIAL BUILD-UP OF WAVES A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE WW3 (WHICH IS COMMON) AND THUS WILL GO WITH A MAXIMUM OF 25 FT OVER THE SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE DUE TO THE STRONG NLY WINDS AND SWELL. THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES SLOWLY E TONIGHT BUT LOSES MUCH OF ITS PUNCH AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW CUTS-OFF OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DUE TO THIS PATTERN...MODEL GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW THINGS WILL ULTIMATELY PLAY OUT...BUT IT SEEMS AS IF THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE E GULF OR ALONG THE FLORIDA W GULF WED INTO WED NIGHT. THE LEFTOVER BOUNDARY WILL MOVE LITTLE THU THROUGH SAT BUT THEN THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT HIGH PRES WILL RE-BUILD OVER THE WESTERN GULF ON SAT...ONCE AGAIN INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN. ATLANTIC... HIGH PRES CENTERED NE OF BERMUDA IS KEEPING E/SE FLOW ACROSS THE W ATLC WATERS WITH SEAS 4-6 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS. THE PRES GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN STRENGTHENING TODAY WITH WINDS REACHING 20 KT IN THE EASTERLY FLOW ESPECIALLY E OF 70W. THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS STRENGTHENS AND SPREADS W ON THU SUCH THAT BY FRI AND SAT THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT STRETCH OF 20-25 KT EASTERLIES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND SEAS POTENTIALLY BUILDING TO 10-13 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS. CARIBBEAN... A GENERALLY WEAK PRES GRADIENT DUE TO A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 63W AND BROAD LOW PRES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. FEW CHANGES ARE EXPECTED UNTIL WED NIGHT WHEN THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT EASES OFF THE YUCATAN COAST AND NW WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 83W. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP NEAR 80W ON WED AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SAT. LOW PRES MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS BUT AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A MAJOR CONCERN. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... STORM WARNING...S OF 21N W OF 90W...GMZ082. GALE WARNING...ELSEWHERE S OF 27N W OF FRONT...GMZ080 AND GMZ082. FORECASTER BERG