000 AGXX40 KNHC 220706 AAA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...AMENDED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 305 AM EDT MON OCT 22 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. ...AMENDED FOR STORM FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TUE SW GULF S OF 21N... GULF OF MEXICO... WARM FRONT OVER NORTHERN GULF STEADILY MOVING NWD WITH MODERATE SE FLOW OF 15 KT OVER MOST OF THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. BIG CHANGES ARE IN STORE FOR THE GULF AS ADVERTISED FIRST GALE EVENT OF THE COOL SEASON STILL IN THE CROSSHAIRS. NWP MODELS SPLIT INTO 2 CAMPS WITH THE GFS/NAM/NOGAPS CUTTING OFF A LOW AT 5H OVER THE S-CENTRAL U.S. WHILE THE ECMWF/CMC/UKMET ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS/NAM/NOGAPS SOLUTIONS WHICH ONLY MOVES THE COLD FRONT EWD TO ALONG 85W BY LATE WED WITH THE FRONT RETROGRADING WWD THU AND FRI. THE GALE EVENT BEGINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND LOOKS TO BE A VERY STRONG EVENT ON THE ORDER OF 40-45 KT OVER THE SW GULF TONIGHT BECOMING A STORM ON TUE. GFS 50 KT 10-M WINDS AND NAM 50-55 KT 30 MB AGL WINDS SUGGEST A STORM EVENT OVER THE SW GULF S OF 21N ON TUE. THIS IS NOW REFLECTED IN THE FCST. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW 50 KT BARBS IN HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT DATA EARLY TUE. ALL WAVE GUIDANCE...NWW3...FNMOC AND UKMET ARE FCSTG SEAS ON THE ORDER OF 20-22 FT BY TUE OVER THE FAR SW GULF WITHIN THE NEAR STORM FORCE WIND AREA. WILL THEREFORE INCREASE THE SEAS CONSIDERABLY FROM PREVIOUS FCSTS FOR MON AND TUE IN THE GALE ZONE. WINDS DECREASE RAPIDLY OVER THE NW GULF TUE NIGHT AND WED AND OVER THE SW GULF BY LATE WED. N TO NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT COVER MOST OF THE GULF LATE THU AND FRI. SW N ATLC... BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CUTS ACROSS THE AREA FROM 31N65W TO E-CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT BRIDGING ACROSS THE FRONT OVER THE AREA. LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE WITH THIS WIND REGIME AS THE FRONT GRADUALLY DISSIPATED. NRN EXTENT OF TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 56W IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA WED...THE SRN BAHAMAS THU AND FRI. THE WAVE WILL SERVE TO INITIALLY INCREASE ELY WINDS OVER THE SE PORTION ON WED BUT AS A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WRN ATLC THU AND FRI AND PUSHES ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ELY WINDS WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA WITH 20-25 KT WINDS COMMON. GFS HINTS AT SOME 30 KT WINDS OVER AND TO THE N OF THE BAHAMAS WITHIN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE NRN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AND THE HIGH PRESS AREA. WILL NOT BUY INTO THIS YET BUT WILL HAVE 20-25 KT WINDS AND 9-12+ FT SEAS OVER MOST OF THE AREA. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN CONFINED TO THE FAR W PORTION NEAR THE GULF OF HONDURAS WITH AN AVERAGE OF 15 KT WINDS ELSEWHERE OVER THE AREA. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 56W IS FCST TO MOVE WWD THROUGH THE TRPCL ATLC TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A DISTINCT WIND SHIFT. WAVE MOVES INTO THE E CARIBBEAN TUE AND BECOMES LESS DEFINED AT LEAST OVER THE CARIBBEAN WED THROUGH FRI WITH TRADE WINDS BEGINNING A MARKED DECREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE NEAR ABSENCE OF TRADES IN THE CARIBBEAN AND STRONG ELY WINDS OVER THE BAHAMAS SUGGESTS SOME DEVELOPMENT WITH THE WAVE IS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK. STAY TUNED. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... GALE WARNING...NW GULF (GMZ080) TODAY AND TONIGHT. ...SW GULF (GMZ082) TONIGHT. STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED...SW GULF S OF 21N (GMZ082) TUE. FORECASTER COBB