000
AGXX40 KNHC 211712
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EDT SUN OCT 21 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO WARM FRONT FROM FROM TAMPA BAY TO 27N89W WILL MOVE
N OF THE AREA TONIGHT. STRONG COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE
OFF THE TEXAS COAST MON AFTERNOON AND EXTEND FROM SE LOUISIANA
TO 19N96W MON NIGHT AND FROM MOBILE AL TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
NEAR 18N93W TUE THEN WEAKEN FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO TO 19N93W 
WED.  GALE FORCE WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED S OF 27N W OF THE FRONT 
MON NIGHT AND TUE THEN BELOW GALE FORCE WED.

THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO 
AND DOES NOT BRING IT INTO THE ATLC OR THE CARIBBEAN AS PREVIOUS 
MODEL RUNS HAD SUGGESTED. THE GFS KEEPS THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG
THE E COAST AND BLOCKS THE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES MOVING
IT INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE 12Z UKMET AND NAM ARE NOT QUITE AS 
RADICAL OF CHANGE AS THE GFS. WILL NOT COMPLETELY CHANGE THE 
FORECAST WILL WAIT AND SEE OF LATER MODEL RUNS CONTINUE THIS TREND.

WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER DGS