000 AGXX40 KNHC 210712 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 310 AM EDT SUN OCT 21 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... FRONT HAS BECOME STATIONARY FROM NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA SW TO 24N90W AND TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY THIS MORNING. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS OVER THE SE GULF FROM 26N85W TO NEAR THE NE PART OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. BUOY OBSERVATIONS FROM ACROSS THE GULF ARE PRESENTLY SHOWING ARE SHOWING E-SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT SE OF THE FRONT AND S OF 25N W OF 90W. WINDS ELSEWHERE ARE SE 15-20 KT. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED IN THE 4-7 FT RANGE OF 25N W OF 90W AND IN THE 4 TO 5 FT ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS ARE OVER MUCH OF THE E GULF WATERS AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT AND TROUGH. FRONTAL PORTION OVER FLORIDA DISSIPATES THROUGH TONIGHT UNDER UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW...WHILE PORTION OVER GULF LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH MON NIGHT AS ATLC HIGH PRES BUILDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF INTO TUE. SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH MON NIGHT AS LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT... THE FIRST STRONG COLD FRONT OF THE FALL SEASON...IS SCHEDULED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST MON MORNING FOLLOWED BY STRONG N WINDS. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING GALE FORCE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAINLY IN THE SW GULF AND CLIPPING THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS OF THE NW GULF MON INTO TUE. GFS 925 MB LAPSE RATE PREDICTOR GUIDANCE FOR MON INTO TUE REMAINS UNSTABLE FOR THE W GULF SUPPORTING WINDS IN THE GALE FORCE RANGE. CURRENT WORDING OF WINDS AND SEAS FOR GALES IN THE SW GULF LOOKS APPROPRIATE...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT WINDS BEING SLIGHTER HIGHER IN THE DEEP SW GULF TUE WHEN MOST OF THE FUNNELING EFFECT OF THE WINDS INTO THE SW GULF TAKES UNDER STRONG HIGH PRES RIDGING THAT BUILDS SE ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NE MEXICO. WINDS ACROSS THE GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH FROM NEAR MOBILE BAY TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE MORNING...FROM N FLORIDA TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE NIGHT THEN WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. LATEST RUNS OF THE NWP MODELS... EXCEPT FOR THE UKMET SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT CROSSES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WED MORNING. THE GFS MEAN SOLN DEPICTS MORE OF A WEAK TROUGH FEATURE FOLLOWED BY LIGHT N WINDS. THE UKMET SOLN HOLDS THE FRONT BACK OVER THE E GULF AS AN INVERTED TROUGH ON THU. EARLIER MODEL RUNS WHERE ALL PRETTY MUCH HOLDING BACK THE FRONT FROM REACHING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA S OF THE PANHANDLE. LOOKING AT THE 500 AND 200 MB UPPER FLOW FOR NEXT WEEK IT APPEARS THAT THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT CLIPS THE NORTHERN GULF TUE THEN LIFTS NE ACROSS THE SE STATES TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU WITH THE TAIL END LAGGING BEHIND ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. THIS MAKES ME BELIEVE THAT THE FRONT WILL BE RATHER WEAK OR PERHAPS MORE OF A TROUGH BY THE TIME IT MOVES INTO THE E GULF AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS MEAN SOLN...AND CLOSE TO THE UKMET SOLN IF IN DEED THE UPPER SUPPORT PATTERN TURNS OUT AS DESCRIBED. WITH THIS IN MIND WILL BRING LIGHT N WIND SHIFT TO THE E GULF ZONE IN DAY 5 IN REFERENCE TO FRONTAL TROUGH. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO NLY 10-15 ACROSS THE GULF THU. SEAS WILL WILL ALSO SUBSIDE FROM THE NW ACROSS THE GULF WED AND THU WITH POSSIBLE LINGERING 8 FT N SWELL IN THE SW GULF THU. SW N ATLC... COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA FROM 31N74W TO 28N81W. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES A PSN FROM 31N67W TO ABOUT 29N70W WHERE IT THEN BECOMES STATIONARY TO 29N81W EARLY THIS EVENING. FRONT THEN LIFTS N AS A WARM FRONT W OF 70W TONIGHT AND MON. THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT DISSIPATES JUST E OF THE AREA MON. NWP MODELS SUGGEST THAT WINDS WILL BE SW 15 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 28N TODAY. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE NE 10-15 KT TODAY...THEN INCREASE TO 15-20 KT TONIGHT AND MON N OF 29N E OF 74W TO THE FRONT AS STRONG HIGH PRES MOVES E OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS WITH AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE BUILDING SE INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC. WINDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SW N ATLC SHOULD BE IN THE 10-15 KT E-SE TO THE E OF THE BAHAMAS AND SE-S TO THE W OF THE BAHAMAS...BUT SOME INCREASE IS EXPECTED MON THROUGH WED OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES DUE TO STRENGTHENING HIGH PRES ALONG 30N MON THROUGH WED. THESE WINDS THEN DIMINISH THU AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE GEORGIA COAST WED MORNING ...AND REACHES TO ALONG 31N73W TO NORTHERN BAHAMAS THU. EXPECT SLY WINDS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO 20-25 KT PER MAJORITY NWP MODEL WIND GUIDANCE SOLNS WITH WINDS W-NW 20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. SEAS E OF THE SE BAHAMAS MAY DEVELOP SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN WHAT NWW3 GUIDANCE SHOWS FOR MON THROUGH WED E OF THE BAHAMAS IN INCREASING E SWELL WITH LONG FETCH AND DURATION. SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER IN RELATION TO BOTH FRONT SHOULD SHOULD BE SEEN N OF 31N THROUGH MON AND ALSO ON WED AND THU WITH THE NEXT FRONT. THIS MAY REQUIRE SOME ADJUSTMENT BASED ON FUTURE TRENDS OF GFS WINDS WITH RESPECT TO THE COLD FRONT. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... TRADES ARE E-SE IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 83W. ELSEWHERE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE WINDS ARE LIGHTER...E IN DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE. EXPECT TRADES TO DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN MON. TRADES...HOWEVER MAY INCREASE TO 15-20 KT OVER A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK DUE TO TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN ATLC WATERS AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC...TRADES WILL BE RATHER WEAK IN MOSTLY THE 10 KT RANGE TUE AND WED. EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD TO 6 FT IN NE SWELL IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE TUE THROUGH THU. A WEAK TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 87W TO A 1008 MB LOW ON THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N87W. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG WITH BRIEFLY HIGHER WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF BELIZE AND YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING. A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE ALONG 52W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS ALSO NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT...IF ANY AT ALL...ON WINDS AND SEAS IN THE FORECAST ZONES THROUGH THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. IT MAY HELP ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC MON AND TUE. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE