000 AGXX40 KNHC 200558 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 155 AM EDT SAT OCT 20 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR PANAMA CITY SW THROUGH 25N90W TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N85W TO 25N90W TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. BUOY OBSERVATIONS E OF THE FRONT OVER THE MIDDLE GULF ARE SHOWING S TO SW WINDS OF 10 KT N OF 27N AND 10-15 KT E TO SE WINDS S OF 27N. BUOY REPORTS W OF THE FRONT ARE SHOWING N-NE WINDS OF 15 KT BETWEEN THE FRONT 93W AND 10-15 KT NE-E WINDS W OF 93W. SEAS REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW BOTH TO THE E AND W OF THE FRONT. GFS TAKES FRONT TO A PSN FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 24N88W TONIGHT WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY THAN W TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 21N98W. FRONT THEN BECOMES SOMEWHAT QUASI-STATIONARY BEFORE LIFTING BACK N AS A WARM FRONT SUN AND MON AS ATLC HIGH PRES BUILDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF INTO TUE. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY VEER AROUND TO THE E-SE AND DIMINISH ON SUN OVER MUCH OF THE MIDDLE AND E GULF AS HIGH PRES BUILDING S OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EXTENDS A RIDGE WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF...BUT BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER MUCH OF THE GULF IN SLY RETURN FLOW SUN AS LOW PRES MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL AND E TEXAS. NWP MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS FRONT WILL BE STRONGER THAN THE AFOREMENTIONED ONE AS IT MOVES OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE SUN EARLY MON MORNING FOLLOWED BY STRONG N WINDS. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING GALE FORCE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAINLY IN THE SW GULF AND CLIPPING THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS OF THE NW GULF LATE MON INTO TUE. GFS 925 MB LAPSE RATE PREDICTOR GUIDANCE FOR LATE MON INTO TUE REMAINS UNSTABLE FOR THE W GULF SUPPORTING WINDS IN THE GALE FORCE RANGE. CURRENT HEADLINE FOR GALES IN THE SW GULF LOOKS APPROPRIATE...BUT MAY HAVE TO BUMP WINDS UP FURTHER BASED ON 45-50 KT 925 MB WINDS SEEN IN THE GFS 925 MB-SFC GUIDANCE AND CONTINUE THEM INTO WED. FOR NW ZONE WILL ADJUST HEADLINER FOR JUST THE SOUTHERN PORTION FOR LATE MON INTO TUE MORNING. WINDS ACROSS THE GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS THE FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD THROUGH WED AND ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGING RETREATS EASTWARD. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH FROM NEAR MOBILE BAY TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE...AND FROM NEAR PANAMA CITY FLORIDA TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE WED. NW-N WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH LATE TUE THROUGH WED...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SW GULF WHERE WINDS MAY STILL BE IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE. SEAS WILL ALSO SUBSIDE TUE AND WED...BUT IN HIGHER RANGES POSSIBLY UP TO 16 FT IN THE FAR SW GULF WED. SW N ATLC... THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NW CORNER LATER THIS MORNING...AND EXTEND FROM NEAR 31N77W TO 28N81W BY THIS AFTERNOON AND STALLS FROM 31N74W TO 28N81W TONIGHT. FRONT THEN WEAKENS W OF 74W AND LIFTS N AS A WARM SUN AND MON. THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT DISSIPATES JUST E OF THE AREA MON. NWP MODELS SUGGEST THAT WINDS WILL BE SW 15-20 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 28N TODAY BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT TONIGHT. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SHIFT TO NW 15 KT THIS MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING TO NE-E 10-15 KT SUN AND MON AS STRONG HIGH PRES MOVES E OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS WITH AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE BUILDING SE INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC. WINDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SW N ATLC SHOULD BE IN THE 10-15 KT E-SE TO THE E OF THE BAHAMAS AND SE-S TO THE W OF THE BAHAMAS...BUT SOME INCREASE IS EXPECTED MON THROUGH WED OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES DUE TO STRENGTHENING HIGH PRES ALONG 30N MON THROUGH WED. SEAS E OF THE SE BAHAMAS WILL DEVELOP IN INCREASING E SWELL WITH LONG FETCH AND DURATION. SEAS GREATER THAN 7 FT SHOULD BE SEEN ALONG AND N OF 30N ON SAT SHIFTING TO NE OF AREA ON SUN PER LATEST NWW3 GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS BEEN RATHER CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... TRADES ARE E-SE IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN 70W-75W AND ALSO FROM 15N-18N W OF 80W. S OF 15N W OF 75W AND ELSEWHERE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE WINDS ARE LIGHTER...E IN DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE. EXPECT TRADES TO DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE E GULF OF MEXICO. TRADES...HOWEVER MAY REMAIN AT 15-20 KT OVER A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN ATLC WATERS AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE. AS A RESULT...ELY TRADES MAY ALSO BE IN THE 15-20 KT OVER THE NORTHERN SECTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC TUE AND WED BY THE SAME REASON. ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...TRADES WILL BE RATHER WEAK IN MOSTLY THE 10 KT RANGE TUE AND WED. EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD TO 7 FT IN NE SWELL IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE TUE AND WED. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 74W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT... BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON WINDS AND SEAS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ANOTHER WAVE IS E OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE ALONG 46W/47W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS ALSO NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT...IF ANY AT ALL...ON WINDS AND SEAS IN THE TROPICAL ATLC NEXT WEEK. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE