000 AGXX40 KNHC 190702 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 AM EDT FRI OCT 19 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING 15-20 KT S-SW WINDS ACROSS NE GULF AND WESTERN PORTION OF THE MIDDLE GULF IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH E TEXAS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST BEFORE DAYBREAK...AND REACH A FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE FAR WESTERN GULF THIS AFTERNOON. NWP GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT THEN MOVES TO A PSN FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO NEAR 24N98W SAT AFTERNOON WHERE IT BEGINS TO WEAKEN. THE FRONT THEN BECOMES SOMEWHAT QUASI-STATIONARY BEFORE LIFTING BACK N AS A WARM FRONT SUN AND MON AS ATLC HIGH PRES BUILDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF INTO TUE. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SHIFT TO NE MOSTLY 15 KT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF NE 15-20 KT WINDS OVER THE NW GULF AND WESTERN PORTION OF THE MIDDLE GULF TODAY THROUGH SAT AS INDICATED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER FIELDS OF THE NWP MODELS AND EVEN IN THE LATEST NAM RUN. WINDS THEN QUICKLY VEER AROUND TO THE E-SE AND DIMINISH ON SUN OVER MUCH OF THE MIDDLE AND E GULF AS HIGH PRES BUILDING S OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EXTENDS A RIDGE WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF...BUT INCREASE OVER MUCH OF THE GULF IN SLY RETURN FLOW LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS LOW PRES MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL AND E TEXAS. NWP MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS FRONT WILL BE STRONGER THAN THE AFOREMENTIONED ONE AS IT SWEEPS OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE SUN NIGHT OR EARLY MON MORNING FOLLOWED BY STRONG N WINDS. PRESENTLY I FEEL THAT THE 25-30 KT FORECAST OF N WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE NW GULF ZONE FOR MON CONTINUES TO BE FINE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AS WILL WANT TO EVALUATE FUTURE MODEL RUNS FOR CONSISTENCY IN WIND FORECAST WITH THE EXPECTED FROPA ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDING EXPECTED GALE CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A PORTION OF THE WESTERN GULF ON MON WHICH APPEARS TO BE MOST LIKELY IN THE SW ZONE...BUT COULD ALSO INCLUDE THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE NW GULF ZONE. GFS 925 MB GUIDANCE SHOWS FORECAST NW-N WINDS OF 45-50 KT IN THE SW GULF AND 35-40 KT ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE NW ZONE MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE. SW N ATLC... THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FAR NW CORNER EARLY SAT AND EXTEND FROM NEAR 31N75W TO 28N81W BY SAT AFTERNOON. FRONT THEN WEAKENS OVER THE FAR NE PART OF THE AREA FROM ABOUT 30N66W TO NEAR THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS ON SUN AND DISSIPATES JUST E OF THE AREA MON. NWP MODELS SUGGEST THAT SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD REACH 15-20 KT ON SAT BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT SAT NIGHT. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SHIFT TO NW 15 KT ON SAT BEFORE DIMINISHING TO NE-E 10-15 KT SUN AND MON AS STRONG HIGH PRES MOVES E OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS WITH AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE BUILDING SE INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC. WINDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SW N ATLC SHOULD BE IN THE 10-15 KT E-SE E OF THE BAHAMAS AND SE-S W OF THE BAHAMAS...BUT SOME INCREASE IS EXPECTED MON AND TUE OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES DUE TO STRENGTHENING HIGH PRES THAT RE-ALIGNS ITSELF E-W NEAR 31N DURING MON AND TUE. SEAS E OF THE SE BAHAMAS WILL DEVELOP IN INCREASING E SWELL WITH LONG FETCH AND DURATION. SEAS GREATER THAN 7 FT SHOULD BE SEEN ALONG AND N OF 30N ON SAT SHIFTING TO NE OF AREA ON SUN PER LATEST NWW3 GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS BEEN RATHER CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... TRADES ARE E-SE IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 67W-75W AND ALSO FROM 15N-18N W OF 84W. S OF 15N W OF 75W AND E OF 65W INCLUDING THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE WINDS ARE LIGHTER...E IN DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE. EXPECT TRADES TO DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STRONGER COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE E GULF OF MEXICO. TRADES ...HOWEVER REMAIN AT 15-20 KT OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA EARLY NEXT WEEK. ELY TRADES MAY BRIEFLY BE IN THE 15-20 KT OVER THE CENTRAL SECTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC SUN AND MON AS ATLC RIDGING TIGHTENS THE PRES GRADIENT ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE...BUT THEN WEAKEN TUE TO 10-15 KT AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD TO 8 FT IN E SWELL IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE IN THE E SECTION SUN THROUGH POSSIBLY TUE. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 70W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT... BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON WINDS AND SEAS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ANOTHER WAVE IS E OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE ALONG 46W/47W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. MAIN FEATURE WITH THIS WAVE IS AN ENHANCEMENT OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ALONG AND NEAR THE ITCZ WHICH COULD SPREAD IN THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS BEGINNING IN ABOUT 48 HRS. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE