000
AGXX40 KNHC 181801
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
BUOY DATA FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF SHOWS SSW WINDS 15-20 KT IN 
ADVANCE OF BROAD LOW PRES OVER TEXAS AND THE GREAT PLAINS WHICH WILL 
INTRODUCE A COLD FRONT INTO THE NW GULF EARLY FRI MORNING. GLOBAL 
MODELS CONTINUE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE FRONT INTO THE 
CENTRAL GULF SAT MORNING THEN BECOMING DIFFUSE SUN AS HIGH PRES 
BUILDS S OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE FRONT 
MAY LIFT N AS A WARM FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GULF SUN AND MON.

WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SHIFT NE AROUND 15-20 KT WINDS IN THE NW 
GULF FRI AND SAT. N WINDS IN THE SW GULF ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 
20-30 KT FRI NIGHT AND SAT...THEN QUICKLY DECREASE SAT AFTERNOON. 
WINDS THEN QUICKLY VEER AROUND TO THE E-SE AND DIMINISH SUN OVER 
MUCH OF THE GULF AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC 
EXTENDING A RIDGE WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. SLY RETURN FLOW 
WILL INCREASE LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO E 
TEXAS. NWP MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS NEXT FRONT WILL BE STRONGER WITH 
25-30 KT N WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE NW GULF ZONE MON AND THE 
POSSIBILITY OF ADDING EXPECTED GALE CONDITIONS FOR A PORTION OF THE 
WESTERN GULF MON.

SW N ATLC...
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FAR NW CORNER EARLY SAT AND 
EXTEND FROM NEAR 31N75W TO 28N81W BY SAT AFTERNOON. IT THEN WEAKENS 
SUN AND DISSIPATES JUST E OF THE AREA MON. NWP MODELS SUGGEST THAT 
SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD REACH 15-20 KT DURING PART OF SAT 
BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SHIFT TO 
NW 15 KT SAT...DIMINISHING TO NE-E 10-15 KT SUN AND MON AS STRONG 
HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE CAROLINAS WITH A RIDGE BUILDING SE INTO THE 
NW PORTION. WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ZONE SHOULD BE 10-15 KT. 
SOME INCREASE IS EXPECTED MON BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA AS THE 
GRADIENT INCREASES DUE TO STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING EASTWARD.

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
TRADES ARE 15-20 KT BETWEEN 67W-75W AND ALSO N OF 15N W OF 84W. S OF 
15N W OF 75W AND E OF 65W INCLUDING THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE WINDS 
ARE LIGHTER. AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AT THE 
END OF THE WEEK TRADE WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT WITH THE EXCEPTION 
OF THE EXTREME W PART OF THE NW CARIBBEAN AND A PORTION OF THE 
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ELY WINDS AROUND 15 KT PREVAIL OVER THE TROPICAL 
N ATLC THROUGH MON. EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD TO 8 FT IN THE TROPICAL N 
ATLC FROM 12N TO 18N BY MON.

WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER MUNDELL