000 AGXX40 KNHC 180657 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 255 AM EDT THU OCT 18 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A RATHER WEAK PRES PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS THE GULF WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHERN AND MIDDLE GULF WHERE LATEST BUOY DATA FROM THOSE AREAS SHOWS SE-S WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 15-20 KT N OF 25N W OF 87W. THIS WEAK PRES PATTERN IS NOTED IN ADVANCE OF BROAD LOW PRES OVER TEXAS AND THE GREAT PLAINS WHICH WILL INTRODUCE A COLD FRONT INTO THE NW GULF LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRI MORNING. THE FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE FAR WESTERN GULF FRI AFTERNOON. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT MOVES TO A PSN FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO NEAR 24N98W SAT MORNING...AND BECOMING DIFFUSE OVER THE FAR SE GULF SUN AS HIGH PRES BUILDS S AND SW OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF. THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE FRONT MAY POSSIBLY LIFT N AS A WARM FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GULF SUN AND MON. LATEST NAM SOLN NOW APPEARS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS WITH RESPECT TO PSN OF FRONT THROUGH SUN. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SHIFT TO NE MOSTLY 15 KT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF NE 15-20 KT WINDS OVER THE NW GULF AND WESTERN PORTION OF THE MIDDLE GULF FRI AND SAT AS INDICATED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER FIELDS OF THE NWP MODELS. GFS 30 M WINDS OVER THE SW GULF ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO N-NE 20-30 KT FRI NIGHT AND SAT...AND QUICKLY DECREASE SAT AFTERNOON. THE 0000 UTC NAM SOLN IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS WITH INCREASING WINDS WINDS IN THE SW GULF FOR SAME TIME PERIODS WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER UPPING WINDS IN THE SW GULF BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THIS PACKAGE. WINDS THEN QUICKLY VEER AROUND TO THE E-SE AND DIMINISH ON SUN OVER MUCH OF THE MIDDLE AND E GULF AS HIGH PRES BUILDING S OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EXTENDS A RIDGE WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHER GULF...BUT INCREASE OVER MUCH OF THE GULF IN SLY RETURN FLOW LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS LOW PRES MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL AND E TEXAS. NWP MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS FRONT WILL BE STRONGER THAN THE AFOREMENTIONED ONE AS IT SWEEPS OFF THE TEXAS COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING FOLLOWED BY STRONG N WINDS. PRESENTLY FEEL THAT THE 25-30 KT FORECAST OF N WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE NW GULF ZONE FOR MON IS FINE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AS WILL WANT TO EVALUATE FUTURE MODEL RUNS FOR CONSISTENCY IN WIND FORECAST WITH THE EXPECTED FROPA ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDING EXPECTED GALE CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A PORTION OF THE WESTERN GULF ON MON. SW N ATLC... THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FAR NW CORNER EARLY SAT AND EXTEND FROM NEAR 31N75W TO 28N81W BY SAT AFTERNOON. FRONT THEN WEAKENS OVER THE FAR NE PART OF THE AREA FROM 30N65W SW TO NEAR THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS ON SUN AND DISSIPATES JUST E OF THE AREA MON. NWP MODELS SUGGEST THAT SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD REACH 15-20 KT DURING PART OF SAT BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SHIFT TO NW 15 KT ON SAT BEFORE DIMINISHING TO NE-E 10-15 KT SUN AND MON AS STRONG HIGH PRES MOVES E OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS WITH AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE BUILDING SE INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC. WINDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SW N ATLC SHOULD BE IN THE 10-15 KT E-SE E OF THE BAHAMAS AND SE-S W OF THE BAHAMAS...BUT SOME INCREASE IS EXPECTED MON BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES DUE TO THE STRONG HIGH PRES THAT BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN SECTION OF THE REGION. SEAS GREATER THAN 7 FT SHOULD BE SEEN ALONG OR N OF 30N ON SAT SHIFTING TO NE OF AREA ON SUN PER LATEST NWW3 GUIDANCE...BUT THIS MAY NEED SOME ADJUSTMENT PENDING AREAL COVERAGE AND DURATION OF THE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... TRADES ARE E-SE IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 67W-75W AND ALSO N OF 15N W OF 84W. S OF 15N W OF 75W AND E OF 65W INCLUDING THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE WINDS ARE LIGHTER...E IN DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE. AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXPECT THE 15-20 KT TRADE TO DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EXTREME W PART OF THE NW CARIBBEAN AND A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ELY WINDS OF 10-15 KT PREVAIL ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE...PERHAPS BRIEFLY TO 15-20 KT OVER THE CENTRAL SECTION OF THIS ZONE SUN AND MON AS CENTRAL ATLC RIDGING NUDGES SLIGHTLY S BEFORE RETREATING EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE COLD FRONT DESCRIBED ABOVE UNDER ATLANTIC. EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD TO 8 FT IN E SWELL IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE FROM 12N TO 18N ON MON. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT... BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON WINDS AND SEAS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE