000 AGXX40 KNHC 171813 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 210 PM EDT WED OCT 17 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. THE 1004 MB LOW JUST OFF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST ON THE 1200 UTC UNIFIED NWS SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS SINCE MOVED INLAND...AND IS WELL ON ITS WAY TO GETTING ABSORBED INTO THE MUCH LARGER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. ASSOCIATED SLY WINDS 20-25 KT OVER THE NW GULF HAVE ALLOWED A NARROW SWATH OF 6-9 FT SEAS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 91W-95W...MAINLY N OF 26N. THIS IS A MIX OF STEEP SLY WIND WAVES AND ESE SWELL...AND THE MULTRIGRID WW3 SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THIS FAIRLY WELL. WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO RELAX STEADILY THROUGH THU AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES. MOSTLY MODERATE SE TO S WINDS ARE ACROSS THE BASIN ELSEWHERE AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH LATE THU...BETWEEN THE APPROACHING FRONT AND WEAK ATLC RIDGING. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS COAST AND INTO THE NW GULF LATE THU NIGHT OR EARLY FRI MORNING. THE FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE NE COAST OF MEXICO ON FRI. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL THEN MOVE TO A LINE FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF DURING SAT. THE NAM REMAINS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. WILL CONTINUE WITH CONSENSUS OF GLOBAL MODELS WITH RESPECT TO FORECAST FRONTAL PSN THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HRS. MODELS DEPICT FRONT WASHING OUT UNDER HIGH PRES THAT BUILDS S ACROSS FLORIDA AND E GULF LATER ON SAT AND INTO SUN. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SHIFT TO NE MOSTLY AT 15 KT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF OCCURRENCES OF 15-20 KT WINDS OVER THE MIDDLE AND WESTERN GULF AS INDICATED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER FIELDS OF THE MODELS. WINDS THEN QUICKLY VEER AROUND TO THE E-SE AND DIMINISH ON SUN OVER MUCH OF THE MIDDLE AND E GULF AS HIGH PRES BUILDING S OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EXTENDS A RIDGE WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHER GULF...BUT INCREASE OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF IN SLY RETURN FLOW LATE SUN AS LOW PRES MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL AND E TEXAS. THIS MORNINGS GFS RUN IS FAIRLY AGRESSIVE WITH THE POST FRONTAL WINDS IN THE NW GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS AT THE MOMENT. OVER THE ATLANTIC...WEAK LOW JUST OFFSHORE CENTRAL FLORIDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY N AND EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE DEVELOPING WARM FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE AREA. A PAIR OF SHIPS REPORTED 20 KT WINDS IN THE E SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW THIS MORNING...SO BUMPED UP THE WINDS THERE JUST A TOUCH. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FAR NW CORNER EARLY SAT AND EXTEND FROM NEAR 31N75W TO 27N81W BY SAT AFTERNOON. FRONT THEN WEAKENS OVER THE NE PART OF THE AREA FROM 30N65W SW TO NEAR THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS ON SUN. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD REACH 15-20 KT AS MODELS SUGGEST...BUT THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR S INTO THE FORECAST WATERS THESE WINDS WILL OCCUR. WILL KEEP THESE WINDS CONFINED TO ALONG THE NORTHERN BOUNDARY OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SEAS GREATER THAN 7 FT SHOULD BE SEEN ALONG OR N OF 30N ON SAT SHIFTING TO NE OF AREA ON SUN PER LATEST WW3 GUIDANCE...BUT THIS MAY NEED SOME ADJUSTMENT PENDING FETCH AND DURATION OF THE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IN THE CARIBBEAN...TRADES ARE MOSTLY IN THE MODERATE CATEGORY BUT OCCASIONAL FRESH VELOCITIES BEING FOUND OVER THE CENTRAL AND FAR WRN PORTIONS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON WINDS AND SEAS IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC OR CARIBBEAN SEA. A HIGHER AMPLITUDE WAVE IS NEAR 40W...AND MAY BUMP UP WINDS/SEAS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY SLIGHTLY IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC BY THIS WEEKEND. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER WILLIS