000 AGXX40 KNHC 170633 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EDT WED OCT 17 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. BROAD LOW PRES OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS AN ASSOCIATED 1005 MB LOW NEAR 24N95W WITH A TROUGH NE TO SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...AND IS CONTINUING TO LIFT GENERALLY NORTHWARD WITH TIME. LATEST NWP MODEL RUNS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN FORECASTING THE LOW TO MOVE NNW TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST TODAY AND LIKELY BECOME ABSORBED INTO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS ARE RATHER LIGHT AROUND THE LOW...BUT REMAIN E-SE 15-20 KT E OF THE TROUGH TO 85W. RECENT BUOY DATA FROM THE NORTHERN AND MIDDLE GULF IS SHOWING SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM NEAR 0000 UTC LAST NIGHT ALSO SHOWED SIMILAR WIND CONDITIONS TO THE E OF THE TROUGH. THIS IS BEING DUE TO THE TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF LOW PRES AND HIGHER PRES TO THE NE OF THE E GULF. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO RETREAT E OF THE GULF TODAY THROUGH FRI IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS COAST AND INTO THE NW GULF LATE THU NIGHT OR EARLY FRI MORNING. THE FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE FAR WESTERN GULF ON FRI. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL THEN MOVE TO A LINE FROM S FLORIDA TO BAY OF CAMPECHE ON SAT MORNING. THE 0000 UTC NAM RUN IS SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON SAT WHERE IT DEPICTS A 1200 UTC FRONTAL PSN FROM N FLORIDA SW TO BAY OF CAMPECHE. WILL GO WITH CONSENSUS OF GLOBAL MODELS WITH RESPECT TO FORECAST FRONTAL PSN THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HRS. MODELS DEPICT FRONT WASHING OUT UNDER HIGH PRES THAT BUILDS S ACROSS FLORIDA AND E GULF LATER ON SAT AND INTO SUN. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SHIFT TO NE MOSTLY AT 15 KT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF OCCURRENCES OF 15-20 KT WINDS OVER THE MIDDLE AND WESTERN GULF AS INDICATED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER FIELDS OF THE MODELS. GFS 10M WINDS ARE 15 KT BEHIND THE FRONT ...BUT THE MEAN ENSEMBLE INDICATES SOME WIND RANGES OF 15-20 KT. WILL RAISE WINDS UP SLIGHTLY BEGINS THE FRONT FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WINDS THEN QUICKLY VEER AROUND TO THE E-SE AND DIMINISH ON SUN OVER MUCH OF THE MIDDLE AND E GULF AS HIGH PRES BUILDING S OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EXTENDS A RIDGE WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHER GULF...BUT INCREASE OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF IN SLY RETURN FLOW LATE SUN AS LOW PRES MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL AND E TEXAS. OVER THE ATLANTIC...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FAR NW CORNER EARLY SAT AND EXTEND FROM NEAR 31N75W TO 28N81W BY SAT AFTERNOON. FRONT THEN WEAKENS OVER THE FAR NE PART OF THE AREA FROM 30N65W SW TO NEAR THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS ON SUN. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD REACH 15-20 KT AS MODELS SUGGEST...BUT THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR S INTO THE FORECAST WATERS THESE WINDS WILL OCCUR. WILL KEEP THESE WINDS CONFINED TO ALONG THE NORTHERN BOUNDARY OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SEAS GREATER THAN 7 FT SHOULD BE SEEN ALONG OR N OF 30N ON SAT SHIFTING TO NE OF AREA ON SUN PER LATEST NWW3 GUIDANCE...BUT THIS MAY NEED SOME ADJUSTMENT PENDING AREAL COVERAGE AND DURATION OF THE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT THEN GRADUALLY BEGINS TO BECOME DIFFUSE TO THE NE OF THE BAHAMAS LATER ON SAT AND SUN AS IT BECOMES SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO RIDGES WITH THE STRONGER ONE TO ITS W. TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED INLAND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. TO THE E OF THE WAVE...TRADES ARE E-SE IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN W OF ABOUT 65W...EXCEPT TO THE N OF 15N W OF 75W. S OF 15N W OF 75W AND E OF 65W INCLUDING THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE WINDS ARE LIGHTER...E IN DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE. AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO LATER IN THE WEEK...EXPECT THE 15-20 KT TRADE TO DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLY THE EXTREME NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN...AND THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE WHERE TRADE WINDS THERE MAY CONTINUE AT 15-20 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 8 FT SAT AND SUN. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W S OF 14N MOVING W 10-15 KT...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON WINDS AND SEAS IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND CARIBBEAN SEA. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE