000
AGXX40 KNHC 140547
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
145 AM EDT SUN OCT 14 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH PRESS IS BUILDING ACROSS THE ERN U.S. AND AS A RESULT 
WINDS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE FAR E 
GULF. 20-25 KT WINDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED BY SEVERAL PLATFORMS IN 
THE FL KEYS WITH 15-20 KT OVER THE FAR E GULF. BROAD LOW PRESS 
CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS IS FCST TO MOVE BACK OVER 
CENTRAL AMERICA AND INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY MON WITH THE 
AREA OF GRADIENT WINDS NOW OVER THE E GULF SPREADING WWD ACROSS 
MOST OF THE GULF E OF 90W BY THEN. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON 
THIS GENERAL SCENARIO. LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS UP TO 10 
FT...PER THE UKMET WAVE MODEL...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRAITS OF 
FLORIDA GIVEN FAVORABLE FUNNELING OF WINDS THROUGH THE AREA. 
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TREATMENT OF THE 
BROAD LOW FOR TUE AND WED WITH MOST TAKING A WEAK SYSTEM NWWD 
ACROSS THE SW GULF AND DISSIPATING IT BY EARLY THU WITHIN AN 
AREA OF SLY FLOW OVER THE W GULF. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS THE MOST 
REASONABLE AND WILL BE THE BASIS FOR THE FCST. A WARM FRONT  
DETACHED FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF TUE
INTO WED WITH GRADUALLY VEERING WINDS OVER THE GULF AS THE WARM 
FRONT MOVES NWD. 

SW N ATLC...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N60W SWWD THROUGH 25N70W TO ANDROS 
ISLAND BAHAMAS. HIGH PRESS IS CURRENTLY BUILDING OVER THE 
EASTERN U.S. WITH NE WINDS PICKING UP TO 20-25 KT S OF 27N W OF 
70W WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN THE STRAITS OF 
FLORIDA. THIS GENERAL SCENARIO REMAINS THROUGH MON. NWP MODELS 
AND THE GFS IN PARTICULAR SPIN UP SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES 
ALONG THE DECAYING FRONTAL TROUGH AND WILL NOT KEY ON ANY 
PARTICULAR DISTURBANCE SINCE THEY APPEARS RATHER SPURIOUS AND 
GIVEN GFS/NAM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES LESS RELIABLE. WINDS 
VEER MORE TO THE E AND SE TUE THROUGH THU AS HIGH PRESS WEAKENS 
AND SLIDES FURTHER OUT INTO THE ATLC. 

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
BROAD LOW PRESS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS ONCE AGAIN IS 
DISRUPTING THE TRADE WIND FLOW OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN W OF 
72W...WITH SLY WINDS NOTED OVER MOST AREAS W OF 80W. HOWEVER
THIS FEATURE IS HAVING LESS OF AN INFLUENCE OVER THE AREAS AS IN 
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. NORMAL TRADE WINDS ARE EVIDENT ACROSS THE 
TROPICAL N ATLC AND E CARIBBEAN E OF A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS ALONG 
74W/75W. BROAD LOW IS FCST TO MOVE WWD OVER CENTRAL AMERICA 
TONIGHT AND WELL W OF THE AREA BY LATE MON AND ALLOW ELY WINDS 
OF 15-20 KT BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE WWD INTO THE ENTIRE 
BASIN BY THEN. MORE TYPICAL ELY WINDS OF 15 KT ARE FCST OVER 
MOST AREAS TUE THROUGH THU. 

WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER COBB