000
AGXX40 KNHC 130547
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
146 AM EDT SAT OCT 13 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK HIGH PRESS IS BUILDING INTO THE GULF TONIGHT WITH GENERALLY 
10-15 KT N TO NE WINDS OVER ALL THE GULF WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 
SE RETURN FLOW OVER THE NW GULF ZONE. WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE 
TONIGHT AND SUN OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE E GULF AS 
HIGH PRESS BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND TIGHTENS THE 
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA. AS LOW PRESS CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF 
HONDURAS MOVES BACK OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND INTO THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE BY MON AREA OF GRADIENT WINDS...15-20 KT SPREADS WWD 
ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
ON THIS GENERAL SCENARIO. LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS UP 
TO 9-10 FT...PER THE UKMET WAVE MODEL...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE 
STRAITS OF FLORIDA GIVEN FAVORABLE FUNNELING OF WINDS THROUGH 
THE AREA AND WILL MENTION THIS IN THE FCST. BY TUE AND WED 
MODELS DIFFER ON THE FCST WITH THE ECMWF A SOLE OUTLIER IN 
TAKING THE LOW FROM THE  BAY OF CAMPECHE NWWD TO NEAR 26N94W BY 
LATE WED. THE GFS HAS MORE OF A SHEARED LOW NEAR 26N95W BY LATE 
WED WHILE THE OTHER MODELS KEEP THE LOW IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE 
AND HAVE A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NEWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE 
NORTHERN GULF BY LATE WED. WILL GO WITH THIS LATTER SCENARIO AND 
FCST GRADUALLY VEERING WINDS OVER THE GULF AS THE WARM FRONT 
MOVES NWD. THIS IS ALSO IN LINE WITH THE DAY 4 AND 5 HPC SFC 
DEPICTIONS AS WELL. 

SW N ATLC...
LONG AWAITED AREA OF LOW PRESS HAS DEVELOPED AND IS LOCATED NEAR
29N66W AND ABOUT TO EXIT THE AREA. THE GFS HAD THE BEST HANDLE 
ON THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. A SFC TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW 
SWWD THROUGH 24N70W TO 22N78W AND AHEAD OF A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT ALONG 30N68W TO THE SE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR PALM BEACH.  
AS HIGH PRESS BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. NE WINDS INCREASE 
TONIGHT THROUGH MON OVER AREAS N OF THE FRONT AND TROUGH WITH 
STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. 
MODELS SPIN UP SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES ALONG THE TROUGH AND 
WILL NOT KEY ON ANY PARTICULAR DISTURBANCE SINCE THEY APPEARS 
RATHER SPURIOUS AND GIVEN GFS/NAM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES 
LESS RELIABLE. WINDS VEER MORE TO THE E AND SE TUE AND WED AS 
HIGH PRESS WEAKENS AND SLIDES FURTHER OUT INTO THE ATLC. 

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
BROAD LOW PRESS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS ONCE AGAIN IS 
DISRUPTING THE TRADE WIND FLOW OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN W OF 
70W...WITH SLY WINDS NOTED OVER MOST AREAS W OF 75W. NEAR NORMAL 
TRADES ARE EVIDENT ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND E CARIBBEAN E 
OF A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS ALONG 70W. BROAD LOW IS FCST TO MOVE 
WWD OVER CENTRAL AMERICA SUN AND WELL W OF THE AREA BY MON 
AND ALLOW ELY WINDS OF 15-20 KT BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE 
WWD INTO THE ENTIRE BASIN BY MON. IT APPEARS THAT THE PRESENCE 
OF FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC WILL HAVE LESS OF AN IMPACT ON THE 
TRADES THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AND THEREFORE WILL FCST MORE 
TYPICAL ELY WINDS OF 15 KT OVER MOST AREAS TUE AND WED AS WELL. 

WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER COBB