000
AGXX40 KNHC 121747
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EDT FRI OCT 12 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

WEAK HIGH PRESS RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH 
LIGHT N TO NE WINDS OVER MOST AREA. THE MODELS DIFFER SOME ON THE
MOVEMENT OF THE LOW PRES CURRENTLY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. 
OVERALL THE GFS DIFFERS THE MOST THEN THE OTHER MODELS...A IT 
BRINGS THE LOW ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE EASTERN BAY 
OF CAMPECHE MON NIGHT AND INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE SW 
GULF MON AFTERNOON AND SE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI TUE 
AND INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WED. THE OTHER MODELS ARE A 
LITTLE MORE SIMILAR BRINGING THE LOW ACROSS THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MON BUT KEEP IT IN THE SW 
GULF THROUGH WED. EITHER WAY IN THE SORT TERM WINDS SHOULD 
INCREASE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WILL INCREASE WITH THE LOW TO 
THE S AND RIDGE TO THE N TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT.

LOW PRESS AREA FCST TO DEVELOP HAS YET TO MATERIALIZE OVER THE 
ATLC AND THUS THE STRONG WINDS WINDS DID NOT DEVELOP AS WELL. NOW
THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP EARLY SAT AND MOVE SLOW NE TO NEAR
27N70W SUN AND 27N69W MON THEN DISSIPATE MON NIGHT OR EARLY TUE.
THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH THEN DRIFTS NW WED. 

BROAD LOW PRESS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO KEEP SUB 
NORMAL TRADES GOING OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W...WITH 
MOST AREAS W OF 75W. NEAR NORMAL TRADES ARE EVIDENT ACROSS THE 
TROPICAL N ATLC AND E CARIBBEAN E OF A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS ALONG 
70W. BROAD LOW MEANDERS JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA THEN AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE LOW MOVES INLAND LATE SUN 
THEN INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MON. ELY WINDS WILL PICK UP ACROSS 
THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN SUN NIGHT AND MON E OF A TROPICAL 
WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THE WINDS THEN DECREASE TO 10-15 
KT BY WED.

WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER DGS