000 AGXX40 KNHC 120539 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 138 AM EDT FRI OCT 12 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK HIGH PRESS IS BUILDING INTO THE GULF TONIGHT WITH LIGHT N TO NE WINDS OVER MOST AREAS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE THE MOST RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS AND BUOY OBS STILL SHOWING 15-20 KT WINDS. LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL PATTERN UNTIL SAT NIGHT AND SUN WHEN WINDS BEGIN VEERING TO THE SE OVER THE GULF W OF 90W AND AN INCREASE IN ELY WINDS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA DUE TO FUNNELING. ON MON HIGH PRESS BUILDS ALONG THE E COAST WITH E TO SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT OVER MOST OF THE GULF E OF 90W. WINDS DECREASE TUE WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE HIGH OVER THE ATLC AND AN APPROACHING FRONT FROM THE NW. SW N ATLC... LOW PRESS AREA FCST TO DEVELOP HAS YET TO MATERIALIZE OVER THE SW N ATLC. IT APPEARS THAT THE GFS AND TO A CERTAIN EXTENT THE NAM MAY BE EXPERIENCING CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES AND HAVE OVERDEVELOPED THE LOW PRESSURE...AND THUS THE WIND FIELD AS WELL. HOWEVER...THERE IS A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION JUST E OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WHERE THE LOW WAS FCST AND WE MAY YET SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT AS SFC WINDS IN THE CENTRAL HAVE TURNED TO THE NW. CURRENTLY A SFC TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N71W SWWD TO 23N79W AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ALONG 30N75W TO THE SE COAST OF FLORIDA. GFS/NAM/NOGAPS/ECMWF ALL DEVELOP A SFC LOW THOUGH WITH TIMING ISSUES WHILE THE UKMET IS A NON-DEVELOPING OUTLIER. WILL CONTINUE TO FCST A LOW DEVELOPING TODAY GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS NOTED ABOVE BUT KEEP WINDS TO 20-25 KT WITH THE SYSTEM. IN ADDITION THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA BY 12Z SAT WHICH IS A COMPROMISE OF THE GFS/NOGAPS AND NAM SOLUTIONS. THE COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO MOVE RAPIDLY SE...WEAKEN AND EXTEND FROM 31N67W TO 26N80W BY THIS EVENING AND STALL AS A FRONTAL TROUGH FROM 29N65W TO 26N80W BY LATE SAT AND DISSIPATE SUN. N-NW WINDS OF 15 KT TODAY VEER AND BECOME NE 15 TO LOCALLY 20 KT SAT AND SUN AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE NE ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODELS DO NOT LOCK ON ANY PARTICULAR DISTURBANCE AND WILL NOT ATTEMPT TO AT THIS STAGE OF THE FCST. A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF NE WINDS 15-20 KT IS EXPECTED ON MON AS MODERATE HIGH PRESS ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST MOVES E. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... BROAD LOW PRESS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA CONTINUES TO KEEP SUB NORMAL TRADES GOING OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W...WITH LIGHT SLY WINDS NOTED OVER MOST AREAS W OF 75W. NEAR NORMAL TRADES ARE EVIDENT ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND E CARIBBEAN E OF A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS ALONG 64W/65W. BROAD LOW MEANDERS OVER THE YUCATAN AND NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH LATE SAT THEREBY KEEPING WINDS OF A SLY COMPONENT GOING OVER AREAS W OF 75W UNTIL THEN. ELY SURGE BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 65W MOVES INTO THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W TODAY AND 75W BY LATE SAT. WAVE CONTINUES WWD SUN AND MON AND ALLOWS FOR A MORE NORMAL TRADE WIND REGIME TO ENSUE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. IT APPEARS THAT THE PRESENCE OF FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC WILL HAVE LESS OF AN IMPACT ON THE TRADES THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AND THEREFORE WILL FCST MORE TYPICAL ELY WINDS OF 15-20 KT OVER MOST AREAS. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER COBB