000
AGXX40 KNHC 120306
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE THIS EVENING CONCERNS DEVELOPMENT OF LOW 
PRES SYSTEM IN SW N ATLC AREA NW OF THE BAHAMAS. WHILE NO LOW 
CENTER HAS APPEARED YET...A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N72W THROUGH 
THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. LATEST QUIKSCAT DATA SHOWS SOME 20 TO 25 
KNOT FLOW E OF THE TROUGH AXIS...BUT MUCH OF THIS APPEARS TO BE 
RAIN FLAGGED. BUOYS 41046 AND 41047 ARE WITHIN THE QUIKSCAT 
SWATH...AND DO NOT SHOW ABOVE 15 KT. ALL MAJOR MODEL STILL SHOW 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW IN THE BAHAMAS...AND THEN HAVE THE 
LOW MOVING NW ALONG THE TROUGH. LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND NAM 
REMAIN BULLISH ON NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS FORMING TONIGHT INTO 
TOMORROW. HOWEVER...NOGAPS AND UKMET BACK OFF THIS SOLUTION. 
IRONICALLY...THE ECMWF IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS AND 
NAM...ALTHOUGH IT WAS THE SOLE OUTLIER YESTERDAY IN NOT 
PREDICTING THE STRONGER WINDS. 

IT APPEARS THE GFS...NAM AND ECMWF MAY BE EXPERIENCING 
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES AND HAVE OVERDEVELOPED THE LOW 
PRESSURE...AND THUS THE WINDS. CONVECTION IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE 
AS YET E OF THE BAHAMAS. MODERATE TO STRONG SWLY SHEAR IS NOT 
ALLOWING CONVECTION TO COALESCE ANYWHERE. THE MOST FAVORABLE 
AREA IS ACTUALLY S OF CUBA WHERE MODERATE CONVECTION IS ONGOING. 
WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO TAPER DOWN WINDS ACCORDINGLY. 
DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW PRESSURE CANNOT BE RULED OUT...AND AT 
LEAST 20 KT OR EVEN 20 TO 25 KT WINDS MAY OCCUR IF THE LOW 
DEVELOPS. 


WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER EC