000 AGXX40 KNHC 110616 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 AM EDT THU OCT 11 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO 23N97W WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SLIGHT WIND SHIFT OBSERVED WITH ITS PASSAGE. N TO NE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE MERGED INTO THE AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE PERSISTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. WINDS HAVE DECREASED SOMEWHAT WITH THE MOST RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS AND BUOY OBS INDICATING 20 KT WINDS ARE CONFINED TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE N COAST OF THE YUCATAN. A STRONGER BUT RELATIVELY SHALLOW COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE NE GULF LATER TODAY AND SURGES SWD TO ALONG 26N82W 27N97W BY LATE FRI AND BECOMES DIFFUSE FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO 26N97W LATE SAT. FRONT USHERS IN N-NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT OVER THE GULF E OF 90W. WINDS VEER MORE ELY AT 10-15 KT SUN AND MON...EXCEPT TO 20 KT E OF 90W AND LOCALLY 25 KT IN FUNNELING ELY WINDS IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SW N ATLC... WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE ATLC WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS NOTED. SUBTLE RIDGE AXIS PER MOST RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS AND SFC OBS EXTENDS FROM 29N65W SWWD TO NEAR 28N80W. MODELS HAVE DIVERGED MARKEDLY WITH REGARD TO THE LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE BAHAMAS WITH ONLY THE GFS AND NOGAPS PROVIDING A SIMILAR SOLUTION OF A FAIRLY WELL DEVELOPED LOW MOVING RAPIDLY NE AND OUT OF THE AREA BY FRI. THE UKMET AND ECMWF DEVELOP A LOW BUT ARE MUCH SLOWER IN BOTH THE DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THE FEATURE BY ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE NAM DEVELOPS A STRING OF SMALL SCALE LOW PRESSURE AREAS AND THIS SOLUTION IS DISCOUNTED. AS IN LAST NIGHTS DISCUSSION WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS/NOGAPS MODELS AND FCST A MORE DEVELOPED LOW MOVING NE THROUGH THE AREA BY FRI WITH SW WINDS OF 20-25 KT...LOCALLY 30 KT SE OF THE LOW AS IT CROSSES THE AREA. THE OTHER SIGNIFICANT FEATURE IS A COLD FRONT SLATED TO MOVE INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA LATER TODAY AND SWEEP RAPIDLY SE...EXTENDING FROM 30N65W TO 26N80W BY LATE FRI AND STALLING FROM 28N65W TO 26N80W BY LATE SAT AND DISSIPATING SUN. NW WINDS OF 15-20 KT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT VEER AND BECOME NE 15 TO LOCALLY 20 KT SAT AND SUN AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE NE ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODELS DO NOT LOCK ON ANY PARTICULAR DISTURBANCE AND WILL NOT ATTEMPT TO AT THIS STAGE OF THE FCST. NE WINDS CONTINUE INTO MON. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... BROAD LOW PRESS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA CONTINUES TO KEEP SUB NORMAL TRADES GOING OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH LIGHT SLY WINDS NOTED OVER MOST AREAS W OF 73W. NEAR NORMAL TRADES ARE EVIDENT ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 17N AND E OF A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS ALONG 59W. BROAD LOW MEANDERS OVER THE YUCATAN AND NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH LATE SAT THEREBY KEEPING WINDS OF A SLY COMPONENT GOING OVER AREAS W OF 75W UNTIL THEN. SOME OF THE SLY WINDS APPROACH 15-20 KT AT TIMES IN SURGES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ELY SURGE BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 59W MOVES INTO THE E CARIBBEAN LATER TODAY INTO FRI WITH E WINDS OF 20 KT POSSIBLY 25 KT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND CARIBBEAN E OF 70W THROUGH SAT POSSIBLY INTO SUN. PRESENCE OF FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC ALLOWS FOR TRADES TO RELAX MON. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER COBB