000 AGXX40 KNHC 100541 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 138 AM EDT WED OCT 10 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. STRONGEST WINDS ARE GENERALLY S OF 26N WITH SEVERAL BUOYS/CMANS REPORTING E-NE WINDS OF 20-23 KT. A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE EXTREME N GULF WITH NEARSHORE SITES REPORTING A WIND SHIFT TO THE N AT 10-15 KT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND HAVE LITTLE OVERALL EFFECT ON THE PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT BACKING IN THE WINDS TO A MORE NLY COMPONENT. A STRONGER BUT RELATIVELY SHALLOW COLD FRONT... WITH BEST DEFINITION IN THE 1000-850 THICKNESS FIELD... APPROACHES THE NE GULF MID DAY THU AND SURGES SWD TO ALONG 26N82W 26N97W BY LATE FRI AND BECOMES DIFFUSE FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO 23N907W LATE SAT. FRONT USHERS IN N-NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT OVER THE GULF E OF 90W. WINDS VEER MORE ELY AT 10-15 KT SUN...EXCEPT TO 20 KT E OF 90W. SW N ATLC... SFC TROUGH FROM 29N62W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. ACCOMPANYING WEAK LOW PRESS NEAR 27N65W WAS EXITING THE FCST AREA. WINDS HAVE DECREASED MARKEDLY IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW WITH NE-E 10-15 KT WINDS REPORTED MOST AREAS. ONCE AGAIN THE NWP MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESS...POSSIBLY AN EXTENSION OF THE BROAD LOW IN THE CARIBBEAN...DEVELOPS IN THE BAHAMAS ON THU. DIFFERENCES ARISE ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW WITH THE GFS/NOGAPS/UKMET DEVELOPING A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW WHILE THE ECMWF/NAM PRESENT A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE FIRST SUITE OF MODELS AND FCST A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW WITH WINDS SOMEWHAT LESS THAN THE GFS DEPICTION...GENERALLY 20-25 KT SE OF THE LOW AS IT CROSSES THE AREA. THE LOW MOVES NE AND EXITS THE AREA LATE FRI...IN LINE WITH GFS/NOGAPS TIMING WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA LATE THU AND EXTENDING FROM 31N66W TO 27N80W BY LATE FRI AND STALLING FROM 28N65W TO 26N80W BY LATE SAT AND SUN. NW WINDS OF 15-20 KT LATE THU EARLY FRI VEER AND BECOME NE 15 TO LOCALLY 20 KT SAT AND SUN AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE NE ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... BROAD LOW PRESS ALONG THE YUCATAN COAST HAS ONCE AGAIN KEPT SUB NORMAL TRADES GOING OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH LIGHT SLY WINDS NOTED OVER MOST AREAS W OF 75W. NEAR NORMAL TRADES ARE EVIDENT ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 14-15N AND WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION. BROAD LOW MOVES INLAND OVER YUCATAN AND SITS THERE FOR 3 DAYS AND INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD THEREBY KEEPING WINDS OF A SLY COMPONENT GOING OVER AREAS W OF 75W UNTIL SAT. SOME OF THE SLY WINDS APPROACH 15-20 KT AT TIMES IN SURGES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ELY SURGE BEHIND THE AREA OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INCREASES TRADES TO 20 KT POSSIBLY 25 KT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC LATER TODAY AND THU AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN E OF 70W FRI THROUGH SUN...THOUGH DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT OVER THE CARIBBEAN PORTION. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER COBB