000 AGXX40 KNHC 090526 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM EDT TUE OCT 9 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE E OF BELIZE COVERS MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. STRONGEST WINDS ARE CONFINED TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND FAR E GULF DUE TO FUNNELED ELY WINDS. BUOYS/CMANS IN THE KEYS ARE REPORTING ELY WINDS OF 25-28 KT WITH 15-20 KT WINDS NOTED ELSEWHERE OVER THE GULF S OF 27N. QUICK LOOK AT WAVE GUIDANCE INDICATES BOTH THE NWW3 AND UKMET MODELS ARE WITHIN A FOOT OF THE LATEST BUOY/CMANS. LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM WITH REGARD TO THE PATTERN. BROAD LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND OVER YUCATAN OR BELIZE IN 24-36 HOURS OR SO AND THE MORE RELIABLE HURCN TRACK MODELS KEEP THE AREA OF LOW PRESS OVER THE YUCATAN OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS THEREBY LESSENING THE CHANCES FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. SHALLOW COLD FRONT...WITH BEST DEFINITION IN THE 1000-850 THICKNESS FIELD...APPROACHES THE NE GULF THU AND SURGES SWD TO ALONG 26N82W 27N97W BY LATE FRI AND BECOMES DIFFUSE ALONG 25N LATE SAT. FRONT USHERS IN N-NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT OVER THE GULF E OF 90W. MODELS IN OVERALL EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT CONSIDERING THIS STAGE OF THE FCST. SW N ATLC... SFC TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING WEAK LOW PRESS EXTENDS FROM 27N60W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS...ABOUT 20 KT OR SO...IN THE AREA CONFINED N OF THE TROUGH TO 27N AND W OF 70W. LOW PRES MOVES E OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT OR EARLY TUE AND LEAVES A WEAKENED E-SE WIND FIELD IN ITS WAKE. GFS/UKMET/NOGAPS MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESS...POSSIBLY AN EXTENSION OF THE BROAD LOW IN THE CARIBBEAN...DEVELOPS IN THE BAHAMAS ON THU WHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE SOMEWHAT SLOWER AND DEVELOP THE SYS ON FRI. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE FIRST SUITE OF MODELS AND DEVELOP THE SYS ON THU BUT HAVE A MUCH WEAKER SYS THAN THE GFS IS DEPICTING. LOW MOVES NE AND EXITS THE AREA LATE FRI WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA LATE THU AND EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA TO 26N80W BY LATE FRI AND STALLING FROM 298N65W TO 26N80W BY LATE SAT. NW WINDS OF 15-20 KT LATE THU EARLY FRI VEER AND BECOME NE 15 TO LOCALLY 20 KT SAT. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... BROAD LOW PRESS E OF BELIZE HAS KEPT SUB NORMAL TRADES GOING OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH LIGHT SLY WINDS NOTED OVER MOST AREAS W OF 75W. NEAR NORMAL TRADES ARE EVIDENT ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 14-15N. AS NOTED ABOVE BROAD LOW MOVES INLAND OVER YUCATAN AND SITS THERE FOR 3 DAYS AND INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD THEREBY KEEPING LIGHT WINDS OF A SLY COMPONENT GOING OVER AREAS W OF 75W. ELY SURGE INCREASES TRADES TO 20 KT POSSIBLY 25 KT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC LATE WED AND THU AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN E OF 70W FRI AND SAT...THOUGH DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT OVER THE CARIBBEAN PORTION. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER COBB