000
AGXX40 KNHC 051815
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
215 PM EDT FRI OCT 5 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

1009 MB LOW PRES WITH 15-20 KT WINDS IN THE NW GULF OF MEXICO IS 
NEAR LANDFALL. IT WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INLAND TONIGHT 
NEAR GALVESTON TX. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS CHARACTERIZED BY 
LIGHT WINDS 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRES OVER THE S.E. 
UNITED STATES...COMBINED WITH A LOW PRES TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE NW 
CARIBBEAN EXTENDING NE ACROSS CUBA INTO THE BAHAMAS...WILL TIGHTEN 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE REGION. THIS WILL INITIATE GUSTY 20 TO 
25 KT E WINDS IN THE SW N ATLC TONIGHT...WHICH THEN SPREAD WESTWARD 
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE E GULF OF MEXICO SAT AND SUN. 
THE LONG FETCH OF E WINDS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO ABOUT 12 FT BY 
SUN ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF FLORIDA.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD LOW PRESSURE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM 
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TO A POORLY 
DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 21N68W. SEVERAL 
WEAK VORTICES ARE EVIDENT EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH...BUT ALL LACK MUCH 
ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME DEVELOPMENT 
IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WHERE VERTICAL 
SHEAR EFFECTS WILL BE LOWEST. BUT ANY DEVELOPMENT...IF IT HAPPENS AT
ALL...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THE OFFSHORES FORECAST WILL REFLECT THE 
LIKELIHOOD THAT THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT GRADUALLY SW 
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A WEAK SFC LOW CONSOLIDATING NEAR THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA SUN AND MON...THEN MOVING INTO THE SW GULF TUE.

WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER MUNDELL