000
AGXX40 KNHC 050552
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI OCT 5 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.


1009 MB LOW PRES IN THE NW GULF OF MEXICO WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE 
NW INLAND INTO SE TEXAS TONIGHT. SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITHIN
THE NE SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW THIS MORNING WILL DECREASE TONIGHT.
A LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG A TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS
LATER TODAY THEN MOVE INTO THEN MOVE ACROSS WESTERN CUBA TO
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE SAT NIGHT OR EARLY SUN THEN INTO
THE SW GULF TUE. THE LOW COMBINED HIGH PRES TO THE N WILL
INCREASE ELY WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.

ATLC TROUGH CURRENTLY FROM 26N66W TO NORTHERN BAHAMAS. A SURFACE
LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR 24N77W LATER TODAY THEN MOVE
SW TO CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT THEN TO WESTERN CUBA SAT. HIGH PRES
RIDGE TO THE NORTH COMBINED WITH THE LOW WILL KEEP STRONG
ELY WINDS N OF AROUND 25N THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN DECREASE
SOME MON AND TUE.

SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 22N TO 15N ALONG 81W. 
THE LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THEN MOVE SW OVER THE NEXT 
FEW DAYS...THEN MERGING WITH THE TROUGH ON SAT. ALTHOUGH 
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO REMAINS LOW...IT STILL APPEARS 
LIKELY THAT THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE W CARIBBEAN THROUGH 
SUN...THEN BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA MON AND 
TUE. WITH THE TROUGH IN PLACE...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS 
THE ENTIRE AREA WITH SEAS AS LOW AS 1-2 FT IN MANY AREAS. 
HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE 3-5 FT OVER S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHERE WINDS 
WILL BE E/SE 10-15 KT FEEDING INTO THE TROUGH.

WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER DGS