000
AGXX40 KNHC 031717
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
117 PM EDT WED OCT 3 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

UPPER LEVELS...
ELONGATED LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA 
PANHANDLE TO ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH THE AREA OF 
HIGHEST VORTICITY IN THE NORTH GULF OF MEXICO.  THE SYSTEM IS 
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN AND REACH THE NORTHWEST 
GULF COAST FRIDAY AND BECOME DIFFUSE OVER LAND SATURDAY.

PERSISTENT WEAK TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN 
MORE OR LESS SOUTH OF A LINE 31N60W TO YUCATAN PENINSULA.

OTHERWISE WEAK RIDGE OVER THE AREA.

SURFACE...
LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN 
BECOMING DIFFUSE NEAR THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST LATE FRIDAY.

BROAD SURFACE LOW OR TROUGH WILL BE UNDER THE ATLANTIC/CARIBBEAN 
UPPER TROUGH WITH NO STRONG LOW CIRCULATION FORECAST TO DEVELOP. 
HOWEVER CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION IN THE AREA COULD ALLOW THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IF THE CONVECTION BECOMES 
ORGANIZED. THE GFS DOES NOT DEVELOP ANY SUCH CENTER THROUGH 
MONDAY.

STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OF A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED 
NORTH OF THE AREA.  THE WINDS WILL FIRST BE NOTED IN THE 
NORTHEAST PART OF THE ATLANTIC AREA THURSDAY AND WORK THEIR WAY 
WESTWARD REACHING THE EAST U.S. COAST FRIDAY.  THESE WINDS WILL 
BE IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE AND BE CONFINED TO NORTH OF ABOUT 
24N. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SOME MONDAY WITH DECREASING EASTERLY 
WINDS.

THE BROAD TROUGH IN THE CARIBBEAN WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS IN 
THE CARIBBEAN REGION.

WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER LL