000 AGXX40 KNHC 021703 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 103 PM EDT TUE OCT 2 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. UPPER LEVELS... LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE EAST AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND THE EASTERN PART OF MEXICO AND ADJACENT CENTRAL AMERICA WILL MOVE NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN TO A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF THURSDAY THEN BECOME DIFFUSE OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OTHERWISE FLAT PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE AREA N OF 23N. WEAK TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE ATLANTIC AREA WEDNESDAY. BY LATE THURSDAY THE TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE EASTERN BAHAMAS EASTWARD...BY SATURDAY THE TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE GREATER ANTILLES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...BY SUNDAY A BROAD TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WEST OF 70W. SURFACE... LOW OVER THE EAST GULF COUPLED WITH STRONG RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. PRODUCING STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE GULF NORTH OF 25N. RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND LOW WILL MOVE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND POSSIBLY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE GFS CURRENTLY WEAKENS THE LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF THURSDAY WITH A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE AREA. RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE THE EAST OVER THE EASTERN U.S. INCREASING THE EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A LOW IS FORECAST BY THE GFS TO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL ATLANTIC TROUGH BEGINNING THURSDAY JUST TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS AND MOVES IT WEST TOWARD EASTERN CUBA. THE STRONG RIDGE BUILDING TO THE NORTH PUSHES THE LOW INTO THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SATURDAY AND CONTINUES THE LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUNDAY. THE LAST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE IS THE ABOVE MENTIONED RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA WHICH WILL INTENSIFY AND BUILD WESTWARD NORTH OF THE AREA INCREASING THE EASTERLY WINDS BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY NORTH OF 25N EAST OF 72W THE EASTERLY WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR MORE WILL SPREAD WEST TO FLORIDA LATE FRIDAY AND REACH THE CENTRAL GULF BY LATE SUNDAY. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER LL