000
AGXX40 KNHC 020743
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
330 AM EDT TUE OCT 2 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

UPPER LEVELS...
DEEP LAYER TROUGH FROM 31N79W TO CYCLONIC VORTEX 22N85W CONTINUE 
TO GUATEMALA.  LARGE AREA OF CONVERGING WINDS ALOFT CAUSING 
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY AIR MASS OVER ENTIRE 
GULF OF MEXICO W OF VORTEX.  ANTICYCLONIC GYRE OVER HAITI 
ADVECTS PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO AREA OVER FLORIDA AND 
BAHAMAS WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER 
REGION.  CARIBBEAN REMAINS MOIST UNDER RIDGE BUT LACKS ANY 
SIGNIFICANT SOURCE OF UPLIFT TO CAUSE PROBLEMS SINCE TRADES HAVE 
WEAKENED...EXCEPTION MENTIONED BELOW.

SURFACE...
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N70W TO 27N80W THEN WARM FRONT 
TO DEVELOPING LOW PRES 1008 MB NEAR 24N81W.  WEAK TROUGH TRAILS 
FROM LOW PRES TO GULF OF HONDURAS PROMPTING CONVECTION ALONG ITS 
BOUNDARY IN NWRN CARIBBEAN.  

LOW PRES DRIFTS ACROSS STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO GULF OF MEXICO 
WITH POSSIBILITY OF DEVELOPING INTO TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER IN 
THE WEEK AS GULF WARM WATERS MIGHT OVERCOME UNFAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT.  GLOBAL MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 
TRACK...TIMING AND INTENSITY OF LOW PRES. 

ONLY OTHER FEATURE OF INTEREST IS REMNANT OF KAREN EXPECTED TO 
DRIFT NW ACROSS NE PART OF TRPCL ATLC TODAY THEN DRIFT W TO NEAR 
24N66W LATE FRI.  MODELS AGREE WITH EXISTENCE OF VORTICITY FIELD 
BUT NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AS WINDS ARE FORECAST TO 
BE LESS THAN 20 KT.

WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER WALLY BARNES