000
AGXX40 KNHC 011722
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
122 PM EDT MON OCT 1 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

UPPER LEVELS...
TROUGH OVER THE AREA FROM BERMUDA TO SOUTH FLORIDA TO BELIZE. 
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP BECOMING A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
EXTENDING FROM NORTH FLORIDA TO THE EAST COAST OF YUCATAN 
PENINSULA CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO TUE.
THE TROUGH WILL DRIFT NORTH EAST OF 90W AND WEAKEN BECOMING 
DIFFUSE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THURSDAY.  MODERATE RIDGE WEST 
OF THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND RETREAT WEST THROUGH THU WITH A 
WEAK RIDGE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA FRIDAY. SATURDAY WEAK BROAD 
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC WEST OF 70W.

SURFACE...
FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N70W TO ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND 
OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WITH A STRONG RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA. 
THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH AS A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER 
THE WESTERN BAHAMAS AND MOVES WEST TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL MOVE 
THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THROUGH TONIGHT AND OVER THE 
SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND THE STRONG 
WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL DECREASE TUESDAY.  THE LOW WILL 
MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND 
INLAND OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH GULF COAST FRIDAY.  THE LOW IS NOT 
FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES 
NORTH.

THE ONLY OTHER FEATURE OF MUCH INTEREST IS THE REMNANT OF KAREN 
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHWEST OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF 
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC THROUGH MONDAY THEN DRIFT WEST TO NEAR 
24N66W LATE FRIDAY. THE MODEL DOES NOT DEVELOP THE LOW AND AFTER 
THE LOW PASSES OUT OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC THE ASSOCIATED WINDS 
ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 20 KT. CONVECTION CONTINUES IN 
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR 
SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT.

WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER LL