000
AGXX40 KNHC 010626
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
230 AM EDT MON OCT 01 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 25N84W KEEPS VERY FRY AIR MASS TO 
ITS W UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  SHARP RIDGE ALONG 70W MAINTAINS 
ANTICYCLONIC MOIST FLOW OVER SW N ATLC AND ENTIRE CARIBBEAN.  
AREA OF DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN RIDGE AND TROUGH ENHANCING 
SCATTERED TSTMS E OF FLORIDA. 

AT THE SURFACE...
LOW PRES 1010 MB AT 26N74W HAS TROUGH EXTEND SW ACROSS CENTRAL 
CUBA INTO NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N 80W.  LOW PRES EXPECTED TO 
DEVELOP TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND MOVE W ACROSS STRAITS OF 
FLORIDA INTO ERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AND TONIGHT THEN WEAKEN 
AND CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL GULF TUE THROUGH THU AND WEAKEN TO A 
TROUGH AS IT REACHES SE TEXAS BY FRI.  THIS IS SCENARIO DEPICTED 
BY GFS WHICH HAD BEST INITIALIZATION OF SYSTEM.  ECM...UKMET AND 
NOGAPS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN INTENSITY BUT ALL AGREE IN TIMING 
AND VERY CLOSE IN TRACK.  NAM STILL HAS NOT RETURNED FROM LUNCH.

STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N67W TO 23MN80W TO NE YUCATAN WILL  
RETREAT N AS LOW PRES MENTIONED ABOVE INTENSIFIES AND DRIFTS W. 
STRONG NE WINDS ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIMINISH AS RIDGE N OF 
FRONT MOVES NE.  WEAK PRES GRADIENT ALONG CARIBBEAN BASIN KEEP 
TRADES WELL BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL MEANS.   

ONLY OTHER FEATURE OF INTEREST IS REMNANT OF KAREN EXPECTED TO 
DRIFT NW OVER NE PART OF TRPCL ATLC TODAY THEN DRIFT W INTO SW N 
ATLC NEAR 24N66W BY FRI IF IT HAS NOT DISSIPATED SOONER. 

WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER WALLY BARNES