000
AGXX40 KNHC 301708
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
108 PM EDT SUN SEP 30 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

UPPER LEVELS...
TROUGH OVER THE ATLANTIC NW OF LINE FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA 
TO BELIZE AND ALSO OVER THE EXTREME SE GULF OF MEXICO.  TROUGH 
WILL DEVELOP BECOMING A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDING 
FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN CENTERED OVER 
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY LATE MONDAY. THE LOW WILL DEVELOP AND 
MOVE NORTHWEST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO CENTERED NEAR 25N85W LATE 
TUESDAY. LOW WILL WEAKEN BECOMING A TROUGH FROM THE FLORIDA 
PANHANDLE TO BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE WED AND A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE 
WESTERN GULF LATE THU TO OVER SOUTH TEXAS LATE FRI.  MODERATE 
RIDGE WEST OF THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND RETREAT WEST TO OVER 
TEXAS WEDNESDAY.  WEAK RIDGE EAST OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.

SURFACE...
FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS 
AND OVER WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WITH A STRONG 
RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH AS A 
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND MOVES WEST 
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STRAITS 
OF FLORIDA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF 
OF MEXICO. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND THE STRONG WINDS NORTH OF 
THE FRONT WILL DECREASE TUESDAY.  THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE 
CENTRAL GULF WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF 
FRIDAY.  THE LOW IS NOT FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND WILL BEGIN TO 
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES WEST OF 90W. 

THE ONLY OTHER FEATURE OF MUCH INTEREST IS THE REMNANT OF KAREN 
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHWEST OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF 
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC THROUGH MONDAY THEN DRIFT WEST TO NEAR 
24N66W LATE FRIDAY. THE MODEL DOES NOT DEVELOP THE LOW AND AFTER 
THE LOW PASSES OUT OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC THE ASSOCIATED WINDS 
ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 20 KT. 

WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER LL