000 AGXX40 KNHC 281755 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT FRI SEP 28 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO...LORENZO IS NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING FURTHER INLAND OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. ASSOCIATED STRONG WINDS AND HIGH SEAS PRIMARILY ON THE NE QUADRANT OF LORENZO WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOCUS TURNS TO INCREASING NELY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NRN GULF WATERS TONIGHT. THE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE STARTING EARLY SAT...MAINLY OVER THE NE QUADRANT OF THE GULF. THE FRONT WILL PUSH AS FAR AS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH FRESH NELY SPREADING ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF BEHIND THE FRONT. CARIBBEAN AND TROP N ATLC...TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 78W WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. SHIP...BUOY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW MODERATE TO FRESH ELY FLOW OVER MUCH OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BEHIND THE WAVE. MEANWHILE...WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM KAREN IS CENTERED E OF THE AREA NEAR 15N49W...AND IS FORECAST TO BE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THIS EVENING. KAREN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...JUST CLIPPING THE NE CORNER OF TROP N ATLC FORECAST ZONE FROM LATE SAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE WINDS WILL INCREASE NE OF THE LEEWARDS...THE MOVEMENT OF THE DEPRESSION WILL WEAKEN THE ATLC RIDGE ENOUGH TO ALLOW ELY WINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN TO RELAX SLIGHTLY STARTING SUN...LIMITING THE HIGHER WINDS TO NEAR THE VENEZUELAN AND COLOMBIAN COASTS. SW N ATLC...WEAK LOW PRES ALONG A TROUGH OFF THE FLORIDA COAST WILL SHIFT NE AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EWD...BEFORE BEING ABSORBED SAT BY A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND INTO THE AREA N OF THE BAHAMAS. THE FRONT WILL STALL FROM 31N67W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY LATE SAT INTO SUN. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG NELY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT REACHING THE NORTHERNMOST BAHAMIAN ISLANDS AND WATERS TO THE N OF THE BAHAMAS BY SUN. WARNINGS... SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON LATEST NHC ADVISORY. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN