000 AGXX40 KNHC 271832 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 PM EDT THU SEP 27 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... MAIN ISSUE IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEWLY NAMED TROPICAL STORM LORENZO OVER THE SW GULF NEAR 20.5N 95.5W WITH 1004 MB PRESSURE. THE STORM HAS MAX SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. LORENZO IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT WSW TOWARD THE MEXICAN COAST WHILE INTENSIFYING TO 55 KT...AND MAKE LANDFALL FRI BETWEEN VERACRUZ AND TAMPICO. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW DOMINATES GULF WATERS. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER NRN GULF WATERS BY EARLY FRI. THE MAIN UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE FRONT STALLING OVER THE WRN GULF...BUT SAGGING AS FAR S AS CENTRAL FLORIDA IN THE ERN GULF. ELY WINDS WILL INCREASE PRIMARILY ACROSS THE WRN GULF FRI INTO SAT...BETWEEN HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE NRN GULF BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE REMNANT LOW OF T.D. 13 OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. FRESH NELY WINDS WILL SURGE ACROSS NRN FLORIDA INTO THE ERN GULF SAT INTO SUN BEHIND THE FRONT. GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER REGARDING DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW IN THE SRN GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL NOT INTRODUCE THIS FEATURE INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AT THIS TIME. CARIBBEAN AND TROP N ATLC... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 72W MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AHEAD OF THE WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BETWEEN THE WAVE AND ATLC HIGH PRES TO THE NE. MODERATE ELY WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE TROP N ATLC...BUT AREA BUOYS SHOW MEDIUM SIZED SWELL STARTING TO PUSH INTO THE AREA...GENERATED ON THE N SIDE OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN. KAREN IS NEAR 13.7N 47.3W AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE EXTREME NE CORNER OF THE TROP N ATLC FORECAST AREA...GENERALLY 300 NM NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY EARLY SUN. SW N ATLC... WEAK LOW PRES 1013 MB CENTERED NEAR 28N79W ALONG A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N79W TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW MODERATE TO FRESH SLY FLOW N OF THE BAHAMAS WITHIN 120 NM ON THE E SIDE OF THE LOW. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT TO THE NE TONIGHT...ALLOWING THE WINDS TO DIMINISH. SHIP OBSERVATIONS ALSO HINT OF FRESH TO STRONG SELY FLOW N OF HISPANIOLA...BETWEEN ATLC HIGH PRES TO THE NE AND A TROP WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE FRESH TO STRONG FLOW WILL DIMINISH TO MODERATE FLOW OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS E...AHEAD OF APPROACHING T.S. KAREN. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST BY LATE SAT...BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL STALL NEAR 27N BY SUN. THE NELY FLOW IN THIS AREA WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH MON AS THE RIDGE TO THE N WEAKENS. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL STORM WARNING SW GULF...GMZ082...FROM 19N-22N W OF 94W. FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN