000
AGXX40 KNHC 261724
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
130 PM EDT WED SEP 26 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...TD 13 NEAR 21N95W 1006 MB DRIFTING SW. NHC 
FORECASTING A MINIMAL TS AROUND SUNSET TODAY AND A GRADUAL 
INCREASE TO A MAX OF 50 KT JUST BEFORE LANDFALL FRI. WITH SYSTEM 
UNDER LITTLE STEERING...THE ERRATIC MOTION WILL CONTINUE...AND 
TIMING OF LANDFALL...AND PERHAPS ITS INTENSITY AS WELL...ALL 
LIKELY TO CHANGE EACH ADVISORY PACKAGE. VERY SMALL SYSTEM AND 
LITTLE HELP FROM WAVE WATCH MODELS. QSCAT WINDS MOSTLY IN 
CONVECTION THIS MORNING AND AT HIGHER VALUES THAN BUOY 
42055...WHICH IN TURN LACKS SEA HEIGHT DATA. RECON SCHEDULED TO 
BEGIN AT 2 PM EDT. OTHERWISE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO 
N WATERS THU NIGHT REACHING ALONG 26N FRI...AND DISSIPATING 
ALONG 24N SAT NIGHT. LOW PRES IS DEVELOPING NEAR 24N81.5 ALONG 
A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS NE ACROSS SE FLORIDA. TWO POSSIBILITIES 
WITH THIS LOW PRES...ONE IS THAT IT TRACKS OR JUMPS NE ALONG THE 
TROUGH AND E OF AREA THU...OR THAT IT REMAINS STATIONARY NEAR 
KEY WEST TILL THE COLD FRONT ABSORBS IT FRI NIGHT. NLY SURGE 
EXPECTED BEHIND FRONT SUN...NE 15-20 KT  OVER THE NE WATERS 
AND 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE.

SW ATLC...A DRY COLD FRONT HAS SWEEPED S INTO THE DISCUSSION 
AREA TO NEAR 28N55W. A LOW LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED W AS FORECAST 
TO PSN 23N77W 28N68W. A SECOND TROUGH HAS FORMED FROM 23N82W TO 
31N77W WITH A WEAK LOW PRES EVIDENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY AT 23N. 
PLENTY OF CONVECTION OVER S FL AND STRAITS OF FL ATTM AS THE LOW 
LEVEL TROUGH LIES UNDER UPPER DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP 
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG 31N80W 22N81W. MODELS FAVORING A 
LOW PRES ALONG FL E COAST THU...WHICH COULD BE THE EXISTING LOW 
RACING NE...OR ANOTHER LOW PRES MAY DEVELOP. NOTE THAT CURRENT 
RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS WEAK CYCLONIC TURNING NEAR 27.5N79.5W. 
ANYWAY...FORECAST LOW PRES MOVING N ALONG 80W TONIGHT AND EARLY 
THU REACHING NEAR 31N77W IN 24 HOURS. A SECOND WEAK FRONT WILL 
PUSH SE INTO NW CORNER FRI AND MERGE WITH ANY REMNANTS OF BOTH 
LOW LEVEL TROUGHS...ONE JUST E OF FL AND THE OTHER IN CENTRAL 
BAHAMAS...WITH THE MERGED BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA TO NW 
BAHAMAS LATE SAT AND DIFFUSE SUN. SEE PARAGRAPHS BELOW FOR 
CYCLONE INFO.  

TROPICAL ATLC AND CARIBBEAN...A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 
67W...BUT IS MORE LIKELY VERY BROAD BETWEEN 72W AND 67W. 
LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS EVIDENT NEAR 18N68W BUT NOT 
CONVINCED IT IS AT THE SURFACE AND CONVECTION IS DECREASING 
RAPIDLY. I WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF ELY WINDS 15-20 KT E OF 
WAVE IN CARIBBEAN. TS KAREN E OF AREA...CURRENT TRACK FORECAST 
IS FOR INCREASE TO HURRICANE 65-75 KT WITH CENTER PASSING JUST E 
OF EXTREME NE CORNER OF AMZ087 SAT AND SUN...BUT RADIUS OF TS 
WINDS OVER AREA N OF 19N E OF 57W. SUBSEQUENT TRACK FORECASTS 
LIKELY TO FLUCTUATE AND OFFSHORE TEXT WORDING WILL CHANGE A 
LITTLE EACH PACKAGE.       

WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...
NONE.  AMZ087...TS CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT AND SUN N OF 19N E OF 
57W.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO... 
NONE.

FORECASTER NELSON