000
AGXX40 KNHC 251757
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...THE SURFACE LOW HAS DRIFTED W A COUPLE DEG W 
SINCE YESTERDAY TO NEAR 22N95W AND CURRENTLY ESTIMATED AT 1009 
MB JUST W OF BUOY 42055. A LOW LEVEL TROUGH STILL EXTENDS N FROM 
THE LOW CENTER TO NEAR 22N93W...AND TROUGH AXIS APPEARS TO BE 
MEANDERING AS EXPECTED... BETWEEN 90W-95W. MODELS CONSENSUS IS 
FOR THE LOW PRES TO MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THU. ON FRI...A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF..BUT TOO WEAK TO LIFT 
THE LOW N...WITH MODELS WASHING OUT THE LOW PRES REMNANTS BY THE 
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...CURRENT IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION WRAPPING 
AROUND THE WEAK LOW...JUST AS IT DID YESTERDAY...SUGGESTING 
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. BUOY 42055 REPORTED 17 KT MAX THIS 
MORNING...AND UNCONTAMINATED QSCAT DATA SUGGESTED 20 KT AROUND 
THE LOW...EVEN IN THE SW QUADRANT. RECON ON ITS WAY TO THE 
SYSTEM...PLANE AT 23N93.5W ATTM..IF A TROPICAL CYCLONE DOES
FORM IT MAY MOVE W.
  
SW ATLC...THE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL TROUGH HAS SEPARATED INTO 
TWO SEGMENTS AS FORECAST. THE NE SEGMENT IS FOR THE MOST PART E 
OF 55W. THE W SEGMENT OF THE TROUGH HAS MOVED W...AS FORECAST TO 
THE SE BAHAMAS...EXTENDING NE FROM 20N75W TO 27N66W. NE 15 KT 
WINDS NOTED TO THE NW OF TROUGH...AND ELY WINDS 10-15 KT SE OF 
TROUGH. SURFACE HIGH PRES NEAR 37N69W IS STILL EXPECTED TO SHIFT 
SE TO NEAR 34N60W WED WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING WSW ACROSS CENTRAL 
BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL CUBA TO NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. AN UPPER 
LOW NEAR 26N82W...MOVING W WITH TIME...IS ENHANCING CONVECTION 
OVER THE W BAHAMAS AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THIS CONVECTION 
LIKELY TO SHIFT W ACROSS S FLORIDA TONIGHT AS DIFFLUENT SIDE OF 
UPPER LOW SHIFTS W. EXPECTING WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF GA 
COAST THU STALLING ALONG 31N74W 327N80W FRI NIGHT. GFS AND ECM 
SUGGESTING NE FLOW INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT NW OF FRONT SAT AND 
SUN...BUT OTHER GUIDANCE NOT NEARLY AS STRONG. SEE PARAGRAPHS 
BELOW FOR EXTENDED THINKING.  

TROPICAL ATLC AND CARIBBEAN...THE TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED 
ALONG 63W...BUT IS MORE LIKELY TILTED FROM 11N69W TO 18N64W. 
THE SURFACE LOW HAS WEAKENED NEAR 17N62W ESTIMATED AT 1012 MB.
A CONVECTIVE BURST IS CENTERED ON 16N63W. EXPECT THIS LOW TO 
DISSIPATE AND WILL MOVE WAVE THROUGH AREA AT 12 KT TO ALONG 73W 
THU...82W SAT THROUGH GULF OF HONDURAS SUN. WILL INCREASE ELY 
WINDS TO 15-20 KT E OF WAVE. TS KAREN E OF AREA...CURRENT TRACK 
FORECAST IS FOR A 60 KT SYSTEM TO PASS JUST E OF EXTREME NE 
CORNER OF AMZ087 SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT RADIUS OF TS 
WINDS OVER AREA N OF 20N E OF 56W. SUBSEQUENT TRACK FORECASTS 
LIKELY TO FLUCTUATE AND OFFSHORE TEXT WORDING WILL CHANGE A 
LITTLE.       

WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...
NONE.  AMZ087...TS CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT N OF 20N E OF 56W.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO... 
NONE.

FORECASTER NELSON