000 AGXX40 KNHC 241747 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 145 PM EDT MON SEP 24 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO...THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH HAS SHIFTED W TO ALONG 93W AS EXPECTED WITH LOW PRES FORMING ALONG THE AXIS AT 22N AND NEARLY STATIONARY SINCE SUNRISE. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK CYCLONE MEANDERING IN THE SW GULF THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS THU NIGHT THEN SLOW ITS PROGRESS WASHING OUT OVER THE CENTRAL PART FRI INTO SAT. EXPECT ANY REMNANTS OF THE LOW TO LIFT N IN RESPONSE TO THIS FRONT. OF COURSE THE CURRENT IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE WEAK LOW SUGGESTING TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. IF THIS OCCURS ALL BETS ARE OFF ON THE FORECAST OF LITTLE MOVEMENT TO LATE IN THE WEEK. SW ATLC...A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE ATLC WATERS ALONG 27N55W 25N61W 18N63W. A FRONTAL WAVE LOW IS TRYING TO FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY NEAR 25N61W BUT THE UPPER LEVELS ARE UNFAVORABLE. EXPECT THE TROUGH TO SEPARATE WITH THE NORTHERN SEGMENT MOVING E OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE SOUTHERN SEGMENT WILL DRIFT W AND LIE N TO S ALONG 64W TUE. HIGH PRES OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL SHIFT E OFF THE SE CONUS TO A PSN NE OF BERMUDA WED NIGHT INTO THU WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING TO NW BAHAMAS. REMNANTS OF THE TROUGH WILL BE PUSHED W THROUGH THE SE PERHAPS REACHING THE EXTREME SE BAHAMAS BEFORE DISSIPATING. SEE PARAGRAPHS BELOW FOR EXTENDED THINKING. TROPICAL ATLC AND CARIBBEAN...A PERSISTENT FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 22N62W 17N64W WITH CONVECTION FLARING E OF TROUGH. EXPECT REMNANTS TO DRIFT NW OF AREA LATE TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING...SEE ABOVE PARAGRAPH. THE MAJOR CONCERN IS A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 59W WITH LOW PRES DEEPENING ALONG THE WAVE AXIS AT 13N. MODELS INDICATE THAT IF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OCCURS ITS MOTION WOULD BE NW AT 10 KT. I USED THIS GUIDANCE IN THIS MORNINGS PACKAGE TO MOVE A LOW...WITH WINDS 20-25 KT OVER E SEMICIRCLE...NW TO NEAR MONA PASSAGE AROUND SUNRISE THU. WILL MOVE THE PARENT TROPICAL WAVE W AT 12 KT ACCOMPANIED BY NE-SE 15-20 KT WIND SHIFT...THEN INCREASING SE WINDS 20-25 KT E OF THE WAVE AXIS...BUT WINDS MAY NOT BE THIS AS STRONG IF CYCLONE DOES DEVELOP. A WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR 15N48W 1014 MB IS NOT FAVORED BY THE CYCLONE GENERATION MODELS...BUT I WILL MOVE A WEAK LOW PRES NW ACROSS THE NE CORNER OF THE TROPICAL ATLC ZONE WED AND THU ACCOMPANIED BY 15-20 KT WINDS. YET ANOTHER TROPICAL LOW PRES IS NEAR 9N33W 1010 MB. MODELS FAVOR THIS LOW FOR CYCLONE FORMATION AND MOVE IT NW AT ABOUT 12KT TO NEAR 22N53W EARLY THIS WEEKEND. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER NELSON