000
AGXX40 KNHC 230501
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
130 AM EDT SUN SEP 23 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

LARGE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER SE EXTENDING NNW TO S 
CENTRAL CANADA TONIGHT. EMBEDDED IN RIDGE IS A CUTOFF LOW JUST S 
OF BROWNSVILLE NEARLY STATIONARY. ENERGY IN WESTERLIES SEEPING 
INTO OUR REGION OFF MID ATLC TONIGHT IN FORM OF SHORTWAVES. 
LARGE TROUGH OVER MID OCEAN BETWEEN 40W AND 60W RIPE FOR THE 
PICKING. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT OLD PERSISTENT TROUGH FROM 
31N48W TO 20N53W PART OF TROUGH ALOFT. TRPL WAVES ALONG 34W..49W 
AND 79W ALL MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. TROUGH FROM YUCATAN NNW TO 
LA.

LATER DAY 1 STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER OH VALLEY SHIFTING 
SLOWLY EWD. CUTOFF LOW OVER S TX PICKED UP BE STRONG SWLY FLOW 
OVER SRN ROCKIES. MID OCEAN TROUGH BEGINNING TO LIFT NE AS 
STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES EWD OFF CANADIAN MARITIMES. ON THE 
SURFACE LATER DAY 1 ATLC RIDGE E OF 50W WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE 
TRADES. CONTINENTAL HIGH FROM SE COAST E TO 55W WITH LIGHT WINDS 
N OF 30N W OF 50W. GULF TROUGH DRIFTING W WITH MOSTLY LIGHT 
WINDS. CARIB GRADIENT WEAK WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS.

FOR DAY 2 STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE HOLDING IT'S OWN OVER OH VALLEY 
BUT STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT ERODING RIDGE. STRONG SHORTWAVE OFF 
MARITIMES INTERCEPTS TROUGH OVER MID OCEAN BUT WEAKNESS REMAINS 
OVER OUR REGION BETWEEN 50W AND 70W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 
RIDGING N OF 20N REMAINS WEAK AND TRADES MOSTLY LIGHT. GULF 
TROUGH MOVES TO 93W WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS E OF TROUGH. 
GFS MODEL LIKES WEAK LOW IN TRPL ATLC NEAR 10N38W.    

OUTLOOK PERIOD...

FOR DAY 3 MID LEVEL RIDGE BOWLED OVER WITH CENTER NEAR 35N76W. 
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE SLOWLY OVER MID OCEAN BUT TROUGH 
INFLUENCE STILL EVIDENT. INVERTED TROUGH OVER NW CARIB. ON THE 
SURFACE DAY 3 WEAK TROUGH OVER WRN GULF WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE E 
TO SE WINDS ON E SIDE. CARIB WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE. 
TRPL LOW MOVES TO 11N44W WITH MODERATE WINDS ON N SIDE. 

FOR DAY 4 STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ERODING N PORTION OF RIDGE 
AND PUSHING IT OFF MID ATLC COAST TO NEAR 35N65W. WEAKNESS IN 
PRES FIELD OVER CENTRAL GULF PERSISTS. ON THE SURFACE DAY 4 
TROUGH OVER GULF WEAKENING WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS. CONTINENTAL 
HIGH OFF SE COAST UNDER UPPER RIDGE WITH LIGHT WINDS N OF 20N W 
OF 50W. TROUGH OVER MID OCEAN FINALLY DISSIPATING. TRPL ATLC LOW 
NEAR 12N52W WITH 20 TO 25 KT WINDS IN N QUADRANT. COULD THIS BE 
ANOTHER IN THE SERIES OF SRN LATITUDE TRPL CYCLONES??

FOR DAY 5 WESTERLIES EXPLOIT WEAKNESS IN PRES FIELD OVER GULF 
ALONG 90W AND TAKE DIP OVER MID WEST. MID LEVEL RIDGE DRIFTING E 
TO NEAR 35N60W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5 CONTINENTAL HIGH W OF 50W 
WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN ELY TRADES. GULF WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. 
WEAK FRONT DROPS S TO GULF COAST. TRPL ATLC LOW WEAKENS AS IT 
APPROACHES LESSER ANTILLES BUT ELY WINDS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE 
BETWEEN 17N AND 21N. GFS JUMPS ON NEXT TRPL LOW NEAR 8N35W WITH 
WINDS TO 40 KT SE OF CENTER. WHAT GIVES WITH THIS MODEL??

WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO... 
NONE.

FORECASTER RRG