000 AGXX40 KNHC 220505 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM EDT SAT SEP 22 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. LARGE INVERTED TROUGH AT MID LEVELS OVER NW CARIB AND GULF BEGINNING TO SEPARATE BROAD RIDGE TONIGHT WITH ONE CENTER OVER TX AND THE OTHER NE OF THE BAHAMAS. LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER MID ATLC BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. STRONG SHORTWAVE IN WESTERLIES MOVING E OVER GREATLAKES TONIGHT. ON THE SURFACE WHATS LEFT OF T.D. TEN OVER WRN FL PANHANDLE MOVING NW 8 KT AND WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE NEXT 24 HR. OTHERWISE WEAK TRPL WAVES ALONG 40W AND 73W MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. TROUGH OVER WRN CARIB WITH A LOT OF DEEP MOISTURE WORKING IT'S WAY NWD OVER FL. WEAK HIGH PRES OVER REMAINDER OF AREA N OF 20N WITH LIGHT WINDS. LATER DAY 1 MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTER OVER TX SHIFTS N ALLOWING WESTERLIES TO MOVE MORE SELY SENDING WEAK SHORTWAVES SE INTO MID ATLC TROUGH. PERSISTING TROUGH OVER MID ATLC FROM 31N48W TO NE NE LEEWARDS. TROUGH OVER CARIB DRIFTING W TOWARD YUCATAN PENINSULA. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDING OVER NE GULF AS REMNANT OF T.D. TEN DISSIPATES. FOR DAY 2 MID LEVEL RIDGE BALLOONS OVER ERN CONUS WITH RIDGE AXIS INTO CENTRAL CANADA. STRONG SHORTWAVE IN WESTERLIES MOVING E OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL INTERCEPT SOME OF THE ENERGY IN THE MID ATLC TROUGH AND WEAKEN IT. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 GFS MODEL DEVELOPS A WEAK LOW OUT OF THE YUCATAN TROUGH AND MOVES INTO NW INTO SRN GULF. COULD BE NEXT TRPL SYSTEM. TROUGH OVER MID ATLC WEAKENING AS SUPPORT ALOFT WEAKENS. MODERATE WINDS OVER CENTRAL GULF AND CENTRAL CARIB OTHERWISE LIGHT TO MODERATE ELSEWHERE. OUTLOOK PERIOD... FOR DAY 3 LARGE MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES TO MID ATLC AREA WHILE WESTERLIES BECOME SWLY OVER PLAINS. STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF CANADIAN MARITIMES INTERCEPTING WHATS LEFT OF TROUGH OVER MID ATLC. ON THE SURFACE DAY 3 MODEL LIKES WEAK LOW OVER W CENTRAL GULF TAKING IT NW TOWARD TX COAST. SOME INDICATION OF TRPL WAVES ALONG 38W..50W AND 67W. WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE ELSEWHERE. FOR DAY 4 WESTERLIES PERSIST ON BOWLING OVER MID LEVEL RIDGE OFF MID ATLC COAST WHILE STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES E TO 42W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 4 GFS GIVES UP ON LOW OVER NW GULF AS IT MOVES INTO TX BUT LIKES WAVE OVER TRPL ATLC WITH NEW LOW CENTER NEAR 11N42W. HIGH PRES PERSISTS W OF 55W WHILE ATLC RIDGE REMAINS WEAKLY E OF 50W. ATLC TRADES INCREASE SOME S OF 20N E OF 60W TO 20 KT WHILE GULF AND CARIB MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE. FOR DAY 5 LARGE MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTER CONTINUES MOVING E TO NEAR 34N65W. WEAKNESS IN MID LEVEL PRES FIELD OVER NE GULF BUT HEIGHTS RISE W OF 90W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5 GFS MODEL LIKES TRPL ATLC LOW MOVING IT TO NEAR 12N48W WITH WINDS 20 TO 25 KT OVER N QUADRANT. COULD BE NEXT TRPL SYSTEM. OTHERWISE WEAK HIGH PRES PERSISTS W OF 50W WITH LIGHT WINDS N OF 20N AND OVER GULF. CARIB WINDS LIGHT TO MODERATE. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER RRG