000 AGXX40 KNHC 200513 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM EDT THU SEP 20 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. A SERIES OF CUTOFF LOWS EMBEDDED IN A LARGE MID LEVEL RIDGE THAT COVERS THE ENTIRE REGION S OF 40N. ONE LOCATED NEAR 30N25W..ANOTHER NEAR 33N50W AND A THIRD ONE NEAR 26N83W. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT ATLC RIDGE REMAINS WEAK WITH E TO SE TRADES 10 TO 15 KT. ALL EYES ON LOW CENTER OVER CENTRAL FL MOVING W WITH PSBL DEVELOPMENT AS IT MOVES OVER GULF WATERS. WEAK TRPL WAVES ALONG 33W..58W AND 89W ALL MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. LATER DAY 1 WESTERLIES BEING HELD WELL N OF 40N BY FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGE. CUTOFF LOWS EMBEDDED IN RIDGE MOVING SLOWLY N ALONG 28W AND 48W WHILE GULF LOW MOVES W. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 LOW CENTER MOVES INTO ERN GULF WITH PSBL DEVELOPMENT..OTHERWISE PRES GRADIENT WEAK ACROSS REGION WITH WINDS LIGHT TO MODERATE. FOR DAY 2 WESTERLIES BEGIN TO MAKE SOME ENRODES S OF 40N. ONE IS A SHORTWAVE MOVING SE OFF THE N CAR COAST. ANOTHER IS INTERSEPTION OF THE MID ATLC CUTOFF. GULF CUTOFF DRIFTING W OVER MID GULF. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 LOW CENTER MOVES WNW WITH PSBL DEVELOPMENT. CARIB WINDS INCREASE SOME TO 20 KT OVER CENTRAL SECTIONS. ATLC WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT. OUTLOOK PERIOD... FOR DAY 3 MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTER MOVES TO SE COAST AND BAHAMAS WHILE GULF CUTOFF DRIFTS WWD OVER WRN GULF. WESTERLIES PERSIST IN CARVING OUT LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH BETWEEN 40W AND 65W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 3 LOW CENTER FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SE LA WITH PSBL DEVELOPMENT. 1020 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 32N70W. WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH 31N50W TO 23N58W WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS. ATLC RIDGE E OF 50W WITH ELY TRADES TO 20 KT E OF 40W. FOR DAY 4 MID LEVEL RIDGE ENLARGES WHILE REMAINING STATIONARY. OLD GULF CUTOFF LOW MOVES NW TOWARD TX COAST. MID LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES OVER MID OCEAN BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE TRIES TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF ALONG 22N E OF 45W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 4 GFS MODEL NOT ABLE TO HANDLE PSBL DEVELOPMENT OF GULF LOW BUT OBVIOUSLY WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. 1021 MB HIGH OFF SE COAST STATIONARY WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS W OF 60W TO 80W. CARIB WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. ATLC RIDGE E OF 50W WITH 10 TO 15 KT TRADES. FOR DAY 5 WHILE STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER SE COAST..NEW SURGE OF COLD AIR ALOFT DIVES S ALONG 50W CAPTURING SOME OF THE MID OCEAN TROUGH AND LEAVING A WEAK SEGMENT BACK ALONG 31N50W TO 25N60W. MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER ERN ATLC GAINING A LITTLE STRENGTH AS OLD CUTOFF LOW MOVES NE AND AWAY FROM REGION. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5 OLD FRONTAL TROUGH OVER MID ATLC WEAKENS WITH UPPER TROUGH WEAKENING. ATLC RIDGE E OF 50W BUT ELY TRADES S OF 20N E OF 50W INCREASE SOME WITH A TRPL WAVE ALONG 47W. CARIB WINDS 15 TO 20 KT OVER S CENTRAL SECTION. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER RRG