000
AGXX40 KNHC 191750
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
155 PM EDT WED SEP 19 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

UPPER LEVELS...
WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 25N83W MOVE W TO CENTRAL GULF 
LATE FRI NIGHT THEN WEAKEN AND MOVE NW OVER SERN TEXAS MON.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO SECOND CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 22N99W KEEPS 
GULF DRY AND WITH WEAK PRES PATTERN AND LIGHTER WINDS. 
 ANTICYCLONE CENTER AT 29N70W COMBINES WITH VORTEX OVER ERN GULF 
TO CHANNEL LARGE AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS BAHAMAS 
WITH STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW N OF 27N AS DEMONSTRATED BY DEEP 
CONVECTION CLUSTERS.  

NEXT CYCLONIC VORTEX IS JUST AT EDGE OF SW NA TLC AREA AT 23N64W 
PRODUCING CONTINUED WESTERLY FLOW OVER REMNANTS OF INGRID 
ALTHOUGH CONVECTION HAS INCREASED EARLIER THIS MORNING.  SHEAR 
OVER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO DIMINISH...BUT MIGHT BE TO LATE TO SAVE 
INGRID WHOSE DEMISE HAS BEEN LONG DECLARED.  CARIBBEAN UNDER 
HEALTHY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM HISPANIOLA TO CENTRAL VENEZUELA. 
DRY AIR MASS AND WEAK PRES PATTERN ALSO MAINTAIN CARIBBEAN BASIN 
QUITE TAMED.   

SURFACE...
SURFACE TROUGH OVER BAHAMAS IS MAIN SURFACE FEATURE IN AGENDA.  
SYSTEM COULD POSSIBLY BECOME NON-TRPCL LOW PRES CENTER AND DRIFT 
W ...WITH SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT IN MODELS ON TRACK...OVER VERY 
WARM GULF WATERS WHICH COULD PROMPT IT TO TAKE TRPCL LOW PRES 
CHARACTERISTICS AS IT MOVES W.  GFS AND UKMET MOVE LOW PRES 
SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE NORTH GIVING IT LESS TIME OVER THE WARM 
WATERS AND MOVING INLAND NEAR 90W STILL VERY WEAK.  NOGAPS AND 
ECM GIVES IT MORE TIME OVER WARM WATERS WHILE TRACKING MORE S 
THAN OTHER MODELS AND GOING INLAND SE TEXAS AS STRONGER CYCLONE.

ELSEWHERE BOTH CARIBBEAN AND SW N ATLC REMAIN UNUSUALLY QUIET 
FOR THIS TIME OF THE SEASON WITH LIGHT WIND AND EASY SEAS 
THROUGHOUT...WELL BELOW THEIR CLIMO AVERAGES.   

WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO... 
NONE.

FORECASTER WALLY BARNES