000 AGXX40 KNHC 181759 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. UPPER LEVELS... WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC VORTEX RIGHT OVER TAMPA FLORIDA COMBINES WITH SHARP RIDGE FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO 30N70W TO ENHANCE UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW ABOVE STATIONARY FRONT EFFECTIVELY PRODUCING QUITE A LOT OF CONVECTION ALONG E COAST OF FLORIDA. ALTHOUGH WRN SIDE OF VORTEX REMAINS VERY DRY...LARGE AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ON E SIDE BRINGS IN THE MISSING INGREDIENT FOR DEVELOPING SYSTEM. SECOND CYCLONIC VORTEX JUST N OF HISPANIOLA AND ANTICYCLONIC CENTER AT 13N66W IN CARIBBEAN MAINTAIN STRONG WESTERLY FLOW OVER FORMER INGRID TEARING ITS ORGANIZATION TO PIECES. LIKELYHOOD OF REGENERATION LOOKS VERY DIM AT THIS TIME. WRN HALF OF CARIBBEAN UNDER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS FROM E PAC TO HONDURAN. IT ALSO KEEPS IT DRIER THAN NORMAL WHILE WEAK TROUGH FROM PANAMA TO HAITI KEEP WRN HALF DRY AND WITH WEAKER WINDS. AT THE SURFACE... LOW PRES CENTER QUICKLY DEVELOPING NEAR BIMINI IN THE BAHAMAS WITH CONVECTION INCREASING RAPIDLY AS UPLIFT PROVIDED BY FRONTAL BOUNDARY JOINS DIFFLUCENT FLOW ALOFT. CONDITIONS EXACERBATE WITH CONSTANT MOIST TROPICAL SLY FLOW. ALL MODELS AGREE ON DEVELOPING A HYBRID NON-TROPICAL LOW PRES CENTER WHICH DRIFTS W AS IT BECOMES MORE TROPICAL IN NATURE WITH PATH OVER WARM GULF WATERS WHERE SST IS WELL ABOVE 26 DEG. MAIN DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS LIE LATIDUDE OF PATH WITH GFS NORTHERNMOST AND ECM AT THE SOUTHERNMOST...MOST OTHER MODELS FALL IN BETWEEN. LANDFALL VARIES FROM 90W TO 97W. REMNANTS OF INGRID APPEAR TO BE DOOMED BY CONTINUOUS RELENTLESS STRONG SHEAR ALOFT. EASTWARD RETREAT OF CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRES CENTER WEAKENS TRADES ACROSS ENTIRE SW N ATLC AND CARIBBEAN. STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NWRN CORNER OF SW N ATLC TURN INTO WEAK WARM FRONT PROVIDING INSTABILITY AND UPLIFT FOR CANVECTION ALONG E COAST OF FLORIDA. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER WALLY BARNES