000 AGXX40 KNHC 171747 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 150 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. DEEP LAYER LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS S INTO SW N ATLC BASIN ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. VERY DRY AIR MASS MAKES ITS WAY INTO NE QUARTER OF GULF CURTAILING MOST OF DEEP CONVECTION OF NOW DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT FROM 26N82W 25N90W 26N97W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO STILL ALLOWS PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE S OF 28N W OF 92W. UPPER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED OVER SOUTH AMERICA CONTROLS FLOW OVER ERN CARIBBEAN AND SW N ATLC E OF 70W PROVIDING DIFFLUENT PATTERN OVER GOOD UPLIFT OF ATLC COLD FRONT CAUSING GOOD CONVECTION ALONG BOUNDARY. ALSO BRINGING STRONG SHEARING WINDS OVER REMNANTS OF INGRID WHICH HAS BY NOW BECOME ALMOST EXTINCT. AT THE SURFACE... TRPCL WAVE ALONG 43W HAS EMBEDDED 1012 MB LOW PRES CENTER MOVING W 15 KT. ENVIRONMENT ALOFT NOT TRULY UNFAVORABLE...SO POSSIBLE SLOW DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR. SECOND TRPCL WAVE ALONG 75W STILL SUFFERING FROM STRONG WESTERLIES ALOFT KEEPING ALL CONVECTION E OF AXIS AND LIMITING DEVELOPMENT. WAVE APPROACHES SLIGHTLY LESS ADVERSE WINDS BUT DRIER AIR MASS IN SWRN CARIBBEAN. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE CONSENSUS ON LOW PRES CENTER DEVELOPING OVER ERN GULF OF MEXICO WED NIGHT AND DRIFTING ALONG CENTRAL GULF THU THRU SAT THEN INTO TEXAS SUN. SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK ENTIRELY TRPCL IN NATURE AND DEVELOPMENT NOT TO CERTAIN YET. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER WALLY BARNES