000 AGXX40 KNHC 170513 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. MID LEVEL ATLC RIDGE VERY WEAK S OF 25N E OF 60W. WESTERLIES DIVING SE OFF SE COAST TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES SE ALONG 80W. STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ALONG 95W STATIONARY. SECONDARY SEGMENT OF RIDGE FROM 30N70W NE WRAPS AROUND A E TO W ELONGATED MID LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 33N WWD TO 53W. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT OLD T.D. INGRID LOOKS BAD WITH LITTLE CONVECTION. STUBBORN CUTOFF LOW NEAR 26N60W STATIONARY HAS KEPT BRISK WLY WINDS OVER INGRID WHICH HAS NOT BEEN CONDUCIVE TO ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TRPL WAVE ALONG 43W WITH ACTIVE CONVECTION BUT NO ORGANIZATION. OTHER WAVE OVER CENTRAL CARIB BUT DIFFICULT TO TELL IF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE OR UPPER TROUGH OVER W CENTRAL CARIB. WEAK COLD FRONT FROM 31N70W TO CENTRAL FL THEN W OVER CENTRAL GULF. NE WINDS TO 20 KT BEHIND FRONT. LATER DAY 1 LITTLE CHANGE TO BASIC MID LEVEL FEATURES. SHORTWAVE PULLS UP STATIONARY ALONG SE COAST AND GFS CONSISTENT ON WORKING THIS INTO A CUTOFF OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 MOST AREA WINDS LIGHT..EVEN IN CARIB. NE WINDS TO 20 KT WILL CONTINUE N OF DISSIPATING FRONT. NO EVIDENCE OF ATLC RIDGE ONLY A FLAT PRES PATTERN. CONTINENTAL HIGH EXTENDING SW OVER WRN GULF. FOR DAY 2 WITH WESTERLIES HELD AT BAY..MID LEVEL PATTERN CONSISTS OF CLOSED OFF CENTERS OF HIGH AND LOW PRES. HIGHS CENTERED NEAR 43N33W..ANOTHER 33N65W AND A THIRD NEAR 34N90W. WEAK CUTOFF LOW NEAR 33N50W. STILL NO CUTOFF OFF SE COAST DAY 2 BUT OLD SHORTWAVE STILL THERE. WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 20N E OF 50W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 T.D. INGRID FORECAST TO CONTINUE DRIFTING WNW WITH LITTLE CHANGE. MOST WINDS LIGHT EXCEPT FOR NELY WINDS OVER NE GULF AND OVER ATLC N OF 30N W OF 65W TO 20 KT. GFS BACKING OFF ON DEVELOPMENT OF LOW OVER SW CARIB. OUTLOOK PERIOD... FOR DAY 3 WESTERLIES HELD AT BAY BY SPRAWLING RIDGES AT MID LEVELS. LARGEST ONE OVER SRN CONUS EXTENDS E TO 60W WITH INVERTED TROUGH ALONG 80W. CUTOFF LOW ALOGN 50W OPENS UP BUT CAN'T MOVE DUE TO BLOCKING PATTERN OVER ERN ATLC. ON THE SURFACE DAY 3 WEAK INVERTED TROUGH OVER WRN BAHAMAS. WINDS TO 20 KT N 0F 29N OVER ATLC W OF 65W AND OVER NE GULF. T.D. INGRID..IF IT'S STILL AROUND FORECAST TO BE NEAR 21N65W. CARIB S CENTRAL WINDS MODERATE OTHERWISE MOSTLY LIGHT MOST AREAS. FOR DAY 4 STRONG ZONAL FLOW IN MID LEVELS N OF 40N WITH POSSIBLE HINT OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS. MID LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS OVER SRN PLAINS. WEAK MID LEVEL CUTOFF FORMS OVER FL/ERN GULF WHILE OTHER CUTOFF OVER MID ATLC OPENS UP ALONG 50W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 4 INVERTED TROUGH OVER FL WITH LIGHT WINDS MOST AREAS EXCEPT NE GULF WHERE WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE NE WINDS 15 KT MAYBE TO 20 KT. FOR DAY 5 WITH WEAKENING OF MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER SRN PLAINS..WESTERLIES FIND A WAY TO HEAD SE OFF MID ATLC COAST INTO MID ATLC TROUGH ALONG 50W. CUTOFF OVER NE GULF DRIFTING W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5 GFS WANTS TO DEVELOP WEAK LOW OVER NE GULF..PART OF THE CUTOFF AT MID LEVELS. ANYWAY WINDS REMAIN LIGHT UNLESS IT DEVELOPS CONVECTION AND TURNS TROPICAL. OTHERWISE ATLC RIDGE REMAINS E OF 50W AND TRPL WAVES UNUSUALLY WEAK FOR SEPTEMBER. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER RRG