000
AGXX40 KNHC 161749
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
150 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

UPPER LEVELS...
STRONG SW WINDS ALOFT CONTINUE TO PLAGUE ANY DEVELOPMENT OF 
INGRID.  RIDGE ALONG N COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA ENSURES WELL 
PACKED SWATH OF SOUTHWESTERLIES CURTAIL DEEP CONVECTION 
DEVELOPMENT OF DEPRESSION.  WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC VORTEX OVER 
SW TIP OF HAITI EXTEND NE TO BEYOND 24N65W MAINTAINING AIR MASS 
MOISTURE TRAPPED IN CARIBBEAN SEA...EXCEPT NW SECTION.  VORTEX 
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR NEXT 48-72 HRS...SO CHANCES OF 
INGRID IMPACT ON CARIBBEAN ISLANDS LESSENS.  

HEALTHY ANTICYCLONIC RIDGE OVER NRN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N87W 
AND WEAK CYCLONIC VORTEX OVER BAY OF CAMPECHE KEEPS PLENTY OF 
MOISTURE FLOWING ACROSS CENTRAL GULF.  FORTUNATELY COLD FRONT 
ACROSS NRN COASTAL WATERS LOST UPPER SUPPORT AND IS BECOMING 
DIFFUSE PRETTY FAST. 

AT THE SURFACE...
STRONG WESTERLIES ALOFT ALSO MAINTAIN TRPCL WAVE ALONG 72W UNDER 
CONTROL WITH MOST CONVECTION WELL E OF MAIN AXIS.  WINDS 
DIMINISH OVER WRN COLOMBIA WHERE WEAK THERMAL LOW PRES HAS 
PERSISTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS.  APPROACH OF TRPCL WAVE AND DECREASE 
OF UPPER LEVEL WINDS CAN FOSTER TROUBLE.  GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE 
TO FORECAST LOW PRES CENTER DEVELOPING OVER SWRN CARIBBEAN...BUT 
NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS IN PREVIOUS RUNS.  LOW PRES EXPECTED TO 
DRIFT NW ACROSS YUCATAN PASSAGE INTO SERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE 
WED.  FORECAST COMPROMISES GFS TIMING BUT WITH STRONGER WINDS 
WHILE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS NOGAPS.

INGRID CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE AGAINST VERY HOSTILE UPPER LEVEL 
ENVIRONMENT BUT STILL REMAINS STRONG TRPCL DEPRESSION WITH 
POSSIBILITY OF INTENSIFYING IF OR WHEN STRONG SHEARING WINDS 
DIMINISH.  MODELS PATH STILL TRACK SYSTEM NW APPROACHING SW N 
ATLC ERN BORDER AT 65W WED THRU FRI.

NW CORNER OF SW N ATLC AFFECTED BY WEAK COLD FRONT FROM 31N77W 
TO 28N81W WITH MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS SPREADING E ALONG 29N- 
30N THRU WED AND GETTING A SECOND SURGE ON THU.  

GULF OF MEXICO AFFECTED TODAY BY DIFFUSING COLD FRONT ON NERN 
CORNER THEN REBUILDING RIDGE KEEP LIGHT WINDS ACROSS MOST OF 
BASIN.  ENCROACHMENT OF LOW PRES CENTER FROM NW CARIBBEAN LATE 
WED INCREASE WIND AND SEAS E OF 90W THRU FRI.       

WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO... 
NONE.

FORECASTER WALLY BARNES