000 AGXX40 KNHC 160519 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM EDT SUN SEP 16 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING EWD OFF THE ATLC SEABOARD TONIGHT BRUSHING BY OUR REGION ALONG 75W. STRONG NWLY FLOW ERODING MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER SW ATLC. RIDGE CENTER BACK OVER SRN PLAINS EXTENDS E TO 50W. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT T.D. INGRID CONTINUES TO BATTLE UNFAVORABLE WINDS ALOFT ON IT'S N SIDE AND IS PAYING A PRICE. THE STORM HAS WEAKENED DURING THE PAST 24 HR. A CUTOFF LOW NEAR 27N58W IS THE CULPRIT AND IT'S NOT SHOWING MUCH SIGN OF LEAVING THE AREA ANY TIME SOON. WEAK TRPL WAVES ARE ALONG 38W..47W.. AND 70W..NONE OF WHICH ARE DOING MUCH TONIGHT. LATER DAY 1 THE WESTERLIES PERSIST ON MAINTAINING A TROUGH ALONG 75W WHILE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER THE SRN PLAINS. MID LEVEL TR0UGHING WORKING IT'S WAY WWD ALONG 33N OVER THE E CENTRAL ATLC TO 50W. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 ATLC RIDGE WEAK WITH NO DISCERNIBLE AXIS..THUS WINDS N OF 20N MOSTLY LIGHT. T.D. INGRID CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY NW WITH NO GENERATION FORECAST. CONTINENTAL HIGH PRES PUSHING WEAK FRONTS S TO N GULF WITH WINDS TO 20 KT SIGNALS A SLOW CHANGE THE SEASON APPROACHING. CARIB WINDS BEGIN TO SHOW SOME CYCLONIC TURING AS THE GFS MODEL IDENTIFIES A WEAK LOW OFF THE NW COLOMBIAN COAST. FOR DAY 2 GFS MODEL SHOWS SRN PLAINS RIDGE BUILDING NWD WITH SOME VORTICITY SWINGING AROUND RIDGE AND HEADING S TO 30N85W CONSIDERABLY OUT OF THE MAIN STREAM OF THE WESTERLIES. THIS IS A REPEAT OF LAST NIGHTS SCENARIO. THIS PRECLUDES A CUTOFF FORMING WHICH THE MODEL LIKED LAST NIGHT. VERY WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE BETWEEN 18N AND 28N E OF 60W WITH A TROUGH ALONG 33N W OF 55W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 T.D. INGRID DRIFTS WNW TO NEAR 20N61W WITH NO CHANGE. SOME MOVEMENT OF A LOW OVER THE SW CARIB WITH WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH. GULF WINDS LIGHT TO MODERATE. ANOTHER WAVE OVER ATLC ALONG 47W WITH A WEAK LOW. OUTLOOK PERIOD... FOR DAY 3 WESTERLIES DECIDE TO WORK ON W SIDE OF MID LEVEL RIDGE FORCING IT NE TOWARD THE OH VALLEY. VORTICITY THAT DROPPED S DAY 2 BECOMES INVERTED TROUGH OVER NE GULF AND SE COAST DRIFING W. ELONGATED MID LEVEL TROUGHING ALONG 33N CLOSES OFF WITH CENTER NEAR 33N51W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 3 NO CHANGE TO OLD T.D. INGRID AS IT DRIFTS WNW TO 21.5N62W. SOME INCREASE IN ELY WINDS N OF 30N W OF 60W AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFF SE COAST. GFS MODEL STILL HINTING AT WEAK LOW OVER W CARIB BUT WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. N GULF WINDS 15 TO 20 KT THANKS TO HIGH PRES. ATLC TRADES MOSTLY LIGHT. FOR DAY 4 MID LEVEL RIDGE WORKS IT'S WAY OVER OH VALLEY TO NE COAST WHILE CUTOFF FORMS OVER E GULF AND DRIFTS WWD. OTHER CUTOFF LOW OVER MID ATLC STATIONARY NEAR 32N50W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 4 GFS MODEL SHOWS WEAK LOW OVER W CARIB DRIFTING NW. THIS TIGHTENS PRES GRADIENT OVER NE GULF WHERE WINDS COULD INCREASE TO 25 KT. T.D. INGRID FORECAST TO DISSIPATE E OF BAHAMAS. TRADES MOSTLY LIGHT EXCEPT MODERATE OVER S CENTRAL CARIB. FOR DAY 5 CUTOFF LOW WORKS IT'S WAY WWD OVER CENTRAL GULF ON S SIDE OF SPRAWLING RIDGE. WEAK CUTOFFS ALONG 33N BETWEEN 25W AND 60W BUT REMAINING MOSTLY STATIONARY. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5 T.D. INGRID FORECAST TO DISSIPATE E OF BAHAMAS. GFS MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAK LOW MOVING TOWARD YUCATAN CHANNEL BUT WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT EXCEPT OVER NW AND NE GULF WHERE PRES GRADIENT PRODUCES WINDS TO 20 KT. CARIB WINDS LIGHT TO MODERATE AS ARE ATLC WINDS. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER RRG