000 AGXX40 KNHC 151734 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 PM EDT SAT SEP 15 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. UPPER LEVELS... BROAD TROUGH OVER GULF OF MEXICO ALONG SRN COASTAL STATES SUPPORTS COLD FRONT ACROSS APPROACHING COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY TONIGHT. VERY DRY AIR MASS ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS TONIGHT AND SAT. HEALTHY MID-UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER FLORIDA SHOULD PREVENT UPPER TROUGH FROM ENCROACHING TOO DEEP INTO GULF EFFECTIVELY STALLING SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM N FLORIDA TO CENTRAL GULF. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX JUST N OF HISPANIOLA HAS TROUGH EXTEND NE TO BEYOND 31N65W. STRONG WLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH BASE OF VORTEX HEAD NE RIGHT OVER TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID DISTURBING ITS OUTFLOW AND PREVENTING FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF SYSTEM. CARIBBEAN WINDS ALOFT CONTINUE STRONG NORTHWESTERLIES ALSO DECIMATING TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 68W. ONLY WRN CARIBBEAN BASIN ESCAPES STRONG WINDS ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE... SW N ATLC HIGH PRES CENTER WELL NE OF AREA MAINTAINS STEADY E-SE FLOW BECOMING S-SW N OF 28N W OF 75W AS WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES NW CORNER OF BASIN LATE SUN AND MON THEN STALLS FROM 31N77W TO 29N81W THROUGH THU. ELSEWHERE IN SW N ATLC WINDS REMAIN LIGHT E TO SE...EXCEPT POSSIBILITY OF EXTREME SE CORNER WHERE WEAKENING TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID MIGHT AFFECT WITH 20 KT WINDS AND 8 FT SWELLS. TRPCL N ATLC TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID ENTERS BASIN EARLY TONIGHT AND HEADS NW ONLY AFFECTING AREAS N OF 16N E OF 62W TONIGHT THRU MON. INGRID EXPECTED TO FURTHER WEAKEN DUE TO STRONG SW WINDS ALOFT AS MENTIONED IN FIRST PARAGRAPH...BUT LIKELY PACK 20 TO 25 KT AS IT CROSSES TRPCL ATLC AND SCRAPES BOUNDARIES OF SW N ATLC. CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 68W ENCOUNTERING DRY AIR MASS AND STRONG WESTERLIES ALOFT CURTAILING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG WAVE BOUNDARY. WINDS TO 20 KT AND SEAS BELOW 8 FT WITHIN 180 NM OF WAVE AXIS. GLOBAL MODELS LOOK AT FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT IN SWRN CARIBBEAN MON AND BUILD LOW PRES CENTER THEN DRIFT IT INTO NW CARIBBEAN THRU THU. TOO EARLY TO TELL WHETHER IT COULD STRENGTHEN BUT CONSENSUS AMONG MODELS SUPPORT AT LEAST A TROUGH IN BASINS. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER WALLY BARNES