000 AGXX40 KNHC 140521 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM EDT FRI SEP 14 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. A LARGE FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE AREA FROM THE GULF ENE TO 35N50W. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WAS ALONG 90W MOVING E. AN OLD CUTOFF LOW WAS NEAR 38N37W WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE PRES FIELD BETWEEN 35W AND 50W S OF 30N. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT ONE TRPL WAVE WAS ALONG 40W ANOTHER ALONG 83W. T.S. INGRID WITH A SMALL BALL OF CONVECTION WAS NEAR 15N49W MOVING SLOWLY WNW. A 1024 MB HIGH ANCHORED THE ATLC RIDGE NEAR 34N60W. LATER DAY 1 ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF STRONG SHORTWAVES DROPS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WILL PHASE IN WITH THE WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE SRN CONUS. SOME LOWERING OF MID LEVEL HEIGHTS OVER THE NW GULF AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES BY. INVERTED MID LEVEL TROUGHING BETWEEN 40W AND 60W WITH LITTLE WWD PUSH TO INGRID. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE NW GULF WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS. INGRID DRIFTING WNW WITH LITTLE DEVELOPMENT. GFS MODEL LIKES A TROUGH OVER THE MID ATLC ALONG 43W N OF 20N. CONVECTION HAS BEEN ACTIVE THE PAST 24 HR. CARIB WINDS MODERATE E OF 80W. FOR DAY 2 LARGE SCALE TROUGHING SETS UP ALONG 75W AS THE LARGE SCALE SHORTWAVE AND WEAKER ONE OVER THE SE PHASE TOGETHER. MID LEVEL RIDGE RE-ASSERTS ITSELF OVER THE SRN PLAINS WITH ANOTHER CENTER OVER THE SW ATLC NEAR 33N62W. INVERTED TROUGHS AT MID LEVELS ALONG 55W AND 73W. ON THE SURFACE ATLC RIDGE ALONG 31N WITH A TROUGH ALONG 43W N OF 22N. TS. INGRID FORECAST TO SHOW LITTLE DEVELOPMENT IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE A ENVIRONMENT THAT HAS JUST A BIT TOO MUCH UPPER WIND. WEAKENING FRONT OVER E CENTRAL GULF WITH WINDS TO 15 KT. CARIB WINDS REMAIN MODERATE E OF 77W. OUTLOOK PERIOD... FOR DAY 3 STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW N OF 33N ALONG 75W BUT LITTLE FURTHER COLD AIR AVAILABLE THUS MID LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS OFF WESTERLIES FOR ANOTHER DAY. A WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVEL PRES FIELD CONTINUES OVER MID OCEAN BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 3 T.S. INGRID LUMBERS ALONG E OF THE LEEWARDS WITH NO FURTHER DEVELOPMENT..A STRANGE SCENARIO FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BUT OBVIOUSLY POSSIBLE. GFS MODEL CLOSES OFF A WEAK LOW NEAR 27N44W WITH WINDS TO 20 KT OVER THE NE SEMICIRCLE. WINDS OVER THE REGION MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE. FRONT IN GULF DISSIPATES. FOR DAY 4 WESTERLIES EXPLOIT A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND A WEAKENING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. ALSO MID LEVEL TROUGHING WORKING IT'S WAY SW OVER THE ERN ATLC TO THE S OF THE MID ATLC RIDGE. ON THE SURFACE DAY 4 ILL DEFINED RIDGE E TO W N OF AREA WITH MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE ELY WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE REGION E OF 80W. T.S. INGRID FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TRPL DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES NE OF THE LEEWARDS. GFS MODEL NOT DOING MUCH WITH MID ATLC LOW NEAR 28N43W BUT WINDS TO 20 KT CONTINUE ON E SIDE. FOR DAY 5 WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER SRN PLAINS DRIFTS E TO 92W..MID LEVEL TROUGHING CONINUES UNDERWAY ALONG 80W AND ON S SIDE OF MID ATLC RIDGE ALONG 32N E OF 58W. WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD WWD ALONG 20N TO 45W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5 WHATS LEFT OF INGRID DRIFTING WNW TO NEAR 21N61W. MID ATLC LOW DRIFTING NE TO NEAR 30N42W WITH WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ON NE SIDE. SOME INCREASE IN ELY WINDS TO 20 KT N OF 29N BETWEEN 55W AND 70W ON S SIDE OF RIDGE..OTHERWISE WINDS OVER THE REGION MOSTLY LIGHT EXCEPT MODERATE IN S CENTRAL CARIB. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER RRG