000 AGXX40 KNHC 100508 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM EDT MON SEP 10 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. TWO LARGE FEATURES DOMINATE THE MID LEVELS TONIGHT..ONE IS THE OLD CUTOFF LOW N OF THE AREA NEAR 42N45W WITH A TROUGH SSW TO 26N55W. THE OTHER IS A RIDGE COVERING THE S CONUS EXTENDING NE OFF THE ATLC SEABOARD THEN SW ACROSS THE ATLC S OF 25N. MID LEVEL HIGH CENTER LOCATED NE OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 30N69W. INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE GULF STUCK IN THE RIDGE. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT INTERESTING LOW CENTER IN THE MID TRPL ATLC NEAR 10N37W. CONVECTION INCREASING TONIGHT AND BANDING BEGINNING TO FORM. COULD BE NEXT TRPL SYSTEM. OTHERWISE WEAK TRPL WAVES ALONG 60W AND 94W. DISSIPATING FRONT OVER NE SECTOR FROM 31N40W TO 25N55W. HIGH 1021 MB NEAR 33N63W. MODERATE TRADES S OF 20N E OF 78W TONIGHT. LATER DAY 1 WESTERLIES GETTING STRONGER N OF 37N WITH A LARGE SHORTWAVE MOVING E ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST..OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE TO MID LEVEL FEATURES OVER OUR REGION. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 TRPL WAVE EXTENDS OVER CENTRAL GULF BUT WINDS LIGHT. CARIB WINDS MODERATE S OF 18N. ATLC TRADES MODERATE S OF 20N. FOR DAY 2 MID LEVEL HEIGHTS FALLING OVER SE CONUS AS STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPS SE OVER GREATLAKES. MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTER REMAINS STATIONARY NE OF BAHAMAS NEAR 28N70W. CUTOFF LOW BEGINNING TO FEEL INFLUENCE OF INCREASING WESTERLIES AND MOVING NE BUT TROUGH CONTINUES SSW TO 27N46W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 GFS KEEPS WEAK LOW IN TRPL ATLC BUT SLOW TO MOVE IT WWD. HIGH CENTER NEAR 30N62W 1021 MB WITH WEAK RIDGE OVER S CENTRAL FL TO CENTRAL GULF. WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES TO TX GULF COAST BUT WINDS LIGHT. OUTLOOK PERIOD... FOR DAY 3 LARGE MID LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS FIRM NEAR 28N68W BUT STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER NE CONUS HAS ERODED RIDGE OVER SE CONUS. OLD CUTOFF LIFTING NE TAKING TROUGH WITH IT..BUT A WEAKNESS WILL CONTINUE OVER E CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 3 WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH FROM 31N40W TO 27N45W WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH 1022 MB STATIONARY NEAR 31N61W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING WSW TO CENTRAL GULF. TRADES INCREASE OVER CARIB WITH MODEL SHOWING WINDS TO 25 KT. STILL LITTLE DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW IN TRPL ATLC. MODEL SOMEWHAT WEAKER TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT. FOR DAY 4 NEXT IN A SERIES OF STRONG SHORTWAVES MOVES INTO NRN PLAINS WITH A WEAKER COUSIN MOVING OVER THE SRN PLAINS WHICH MAY BE THE START OF A SRN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES. MID LEVEL RIDGE HOLDING NEAR 30N70W BUT ELONGATING MORE NE/SW. WEAKNESS IN MID LEVEL PRES FIELD CONTINUES OVER E CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 40W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 4 A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 31N62W WITH RIDGE TO N CENTRAL GULF. FRONT OVER NW GULF DISSIPATING. 25 KT WINDS CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL CARIB WITH GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH CENTER AND 1006 MB LOW OVER COLOMBIA. LOW CENTER OVER TRPL ATLC CRAWLING WWD WITH WINDS TO 20 KT. FOR DAY 5 STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPS SE OVER WRN GREATLAKES PICKING UP WEAK SHORTWAVE ALONG 90W OVER SRN CONUS. MID LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS OUT DUE TO INCREASING SW MID LEVEL FLOW BUT RIDGE HOLDS ITS' POSITION OFF SE COAST. OLD CUTOFF LOW WEAKER BUT REFUSING TO LEAVE THE ERN ATLC..REMAINING NEAR 33N37W WITH A WEAKNESS BETWEEN 30W AND 40W OVER OUR REGION. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5 HIGH PRES CENTER OFF SE COAST MERGING WITH ATLC RIDGE WITH AXIS SHIFTING N TO 30N WWD ACROSS N GULF COAST. CARIB WINDS RELAX AS RIDGE SHIFTS NWD. GULF WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. ATLC TRADES LIGHT TO MODERATE EXCEPT N OF TRPL LOW CENTER WHERE MODEL SHOWS 20 TO 25 KT. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER RRG