000 AGXX40 KNHC 080504 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM EDT SAT SEP 8 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION N OF THE AREA NEAR 40N45W CONTINUES TO LOWER MID LEVEL HEIGHTS S OF 30N BETWEEN 40W AND 55W. OTHERWISE A LARGE MID LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE SE CONUS EXTENDING ENE OFF THE MID ATLC TONIGHT. AN INVERTED TROUGH ALONG 75W WAS STUCK IN THE RIDGE AND MOVING SLOWLY WNW. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT SUBTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE HAS FINALLY FORMED OFF THE SE COAST NEAR 30.4N72.2W AND WAS MOVING WNW AT 9 KT. THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE NW AND HEAD AWAY FROM OUR REGION. WEAK TRPL WAVES ALONG 53W AND 86W MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. ATLC RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 28N47W WITH AN AXIS TO THE SE BAHAMAS. WEAK LOW CENTER E OF LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 16N52W WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION. LATER DAY 1 LITTLE CHANGE TO MID LEVEL PATTERN WITH THE LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION REMAINING STATIONARY. INVERTED TROUGH ALONG 76W MOVING NW AS MID LEVEL HIGH CENTER ROTATES TO 35N68W. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 SUBTRPL STORM GABRIELLE MOVING NW TOWARD OUTER BANKS. ATLC RIDGE REMAINS STATIONARY. MODERATE TRADES IN CARIB MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE OVER ATLC. GULF WINDS LIGHT. FOR DAY 2 LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION STATIONARY AND BLOCKED BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE NE ATLC AND A LARGE BUBBLE OF HIGH PRES OFF THE SE COAST NEAR 32N70W. INVERTED TROUGH DRIFTS W OVER FL. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 DISSIPATING COLD FRONT OVER NE PORTION OF AREA WITH WINDS TO 20 KT N OF 28N E OF 50W. OTHERWISE MODERATE TRADES OVER CARIB AND MOSTLY LIGHT ELSEWHERE. OUTLOOK PERIOD... FOR DAY 3 LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION REMAINS NEAR 40N44W WITH TROUGH S ALONG 48W. LARGE BUBBLE OF HIGH PRES AT MID LEVELS STATIONARY NEAR 30N72W. FAIRLY STRONG TROUGH IN WESTERLIES MOVING ESE OVER GREATLAKES. ON THE SURFACE DAY 3 FRONT DISSIPATES OVER NE SECTOR WITH WINDS DECREASING TO 15 KT. OTHERWISE ATLC RIDGE ALONG 23N E OF 60W. SECONDARY HIGH 1022 MB NEAR 33N63W RIDGES WSW TO N GULF. GFS PICKS UP ON A LOW NEAR 12N36W MOVING W..COULD BE NEXT TRPL SYSTEM. FOR DAY 4 STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN WESTERLIES HEADING SE TOWARD NE COAST BUT MID LEVEL RIDGE HOLDING FIRM FROM 30N70W TO 45N50W. OLD CUTOFF LOW FINALLY MOVING ENE TO 42N40W BUT WEAKNESS REMAINS ALONG 40W TO 50W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 4 ATLC RIDGE ALONG 28N E OF 45W WITH SECONDARY HIGH NEAR 31N62W. IN BETWEEN A WEAKNESS IN THE PRES PATTERN BETWEEN 45W AND 50W. WEAK LOW NEAR 13N38W. MODERATE TRADES OVER CARIB AND LIGHT WINDS OVER GULF. NEW COLD FRONT MOVES TO SE TX. FOR DAY 5 WESTERLIES SHOWING STRONG WLY FLOW N OF 40N BUT ABSENCE OF COLD AIR NOT ALLOWING SHORTWAVES TO PENETRATE SWD FOR NOW..THUS SHORTWAVES EXIT OFF NE COAST AND HEAD EWD OVER TOP OF MID LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM BAHAMAS NE TO 40N50W. OLD CUTOFF LOW MOVING SLOWLY NE TO 43N38W. MID LEVEL TROUGHING BEGINNING TO SET UP OVER SRN MS VALLEY AS NEXT SHORTWAVE DROPS S TOWARD NRN PLAINS. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5 GFS MODEL LIKES LOW OVER TRPL ATLC MOVING IT TO NEAR 15N42W WITH MORE NWLY COURSE. ATLC RIDGE ALONG 30N E OF 50W WITH SECONDARY HIGH 1021 MB NEAR 31N62W RIDGING WSW TO N FL. GULF WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AS FRONT STALLS ON TX COAST AND WASHES OUT. CARIB TRADES 20 TO 25 KT S CENTRAL SECTION WHILE ATLC TRADES INCREASE SOME WITH GRADIENT TIGHTENING BETWEEN 18N AND 24N E OF 45W. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER RRG