000
AGXX40 KNHC 071706
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EDT FRI SEP 7 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO REMAINS RATHER QUIET WITH A WEAK PRES PATTERN 
ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS AND NAM DEVELOP A LOW OVER THE MIDDLE
GULF AROUND SUN NIGHT. THE NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE AND DEVELOPS
THE LOW INTO A TROPICAL STORM AND MOVES IT W TOWARD TEXAS
BY MON NIGHT. THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW WEAK THEN BECOMING A
TROUGH BY MON. OTHER MODELS ONLY HINT AT A TROUGH. FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH ENSEMBLE AND MENTION TROUGH. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE 
TO THE TEXAS COAST TUE AND EXTEND FROM SE MISSISSIPPI TO
TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS WED.

ATLC LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 30N79W IS FORECAST TO MOVE WNW TO NEAR
31N76W SAT AFTERNOON...THEN N OF THE AREA LATE SUN NIGHT.
THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IS STARTING TO WRAP
AROUND THE CENTER OF THE LOW AND MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE. QUIKSCAT WINDS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING INDICATE 20-25 
KT WINDS NW OF THE LOW CENTER. WILL CONTINUE WITH FORECAST 
TRENDS ON CURRENT PACKAGE WITH WINDS 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS 8 TO 
12 FT...THAT IS UNLESS NHC ISSUES AN ADVISORY ON THE SYSTEM.

TRADES IN THE CARIBBEAN IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE IN THE TYPICAL
REGIONS IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INTO
THE TROPICAL ATLC ZONE SAT NIGHT...THEN INTO THE E CARIBBEAN 
SUN NIGHT...THEN INTO THE W CARIBBEAN TUE.
 
WARNINGS...

ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO... 
NONE.

FORECASTER DGS