000 AGXX40 KNHC 060505 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM EDT THU SEP 6 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. THE WESTERLIES KEEP TRYING TO MEDDLE IN OUR AREA S OF 31N TONIGHT WITH A VORTICITY CENTER DROPPING S NEAR 29N74W. CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS SHEARED OFF TO THE NE FOR NOW BUT MODELS WANT TO DEVELOP THIS CENTER IN THE FUTURE. A LARGE MID LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE GULF AND SE CONUS TONIGHT. MID LEVEL RIDGING STRETCHES ACROSS THE ATLC ALONG 20 TO 24N. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT A 1008 MB LOW WAS NEAR 30N70W AND NEARLY STATIONARY. WEAK TRPL WAVES WERE ALONG 43W AND 73W MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. A 1022 MB HIGH CENTER WAS NEAR 27N44W DRIFTING E. WINDS OVER THE REGION ARE MOSTLY LIGHT EXCEPT FOR OVER THE ATLC N OF 27N W OF 65W WHERE SSMI SHOWS WINDS TO 20 KT. S CENTRAL CARIB WINDS 15 TO 20 KT ACCORDING TO SSMI. LATER DAY 1 THE BIG QUESTION IS WHAT WILL INFLUENCE THE MID LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER NEAR 30N70W..THE WESTERLIES OR THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SE CONUS. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 THE LOW CENTER REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY WITH WINDS TO 25 KT WITHIN 300 NM OF THE CENTER..MAINLY N SEMICIRCLE. GFS MODEL HINTS AT A TRPL WAVE ALONG 47W BUT NO HINT OF THE CARIB WAVE. FOR DAY 2 ACCORDING TO THE GFS MODEL THE WESTERLIES ABANDON THE VORTICITY CENTER WHILE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SE CONUS ROTATES NE OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. THIS WILL TURN THE VORT CENTER WWD ALONG 30N. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 THE GFS SHOWS THE LOW CENTER MOVING WWD TO 30N73W. WEAK ATLC RIDGE ALONG 26N WWD TO 70W WILL KEEP A WEAK TRPL WAVE ALONG 50W MOVING W. OUTLOOK PERIOD... FOR DAY 3 THE MID LEVEL HIGH CENTER ELONGATES IT'S SELF ALONG 67W FORCING THE VORTICITY CENTER TO TURN MORE NWLY. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MID ATLC CLOSES OFF WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING SSW ALONG 50W AND WEAKENING THE MID LEVEL ATLC RIDGE. ON THE SURFACE DAY 3 A WEAK LOW CENTER MOVES NW TOWARD THE OUTER BANKS OF NC WITH WINDS OVER OUR AREA N OF 28N W OF 70W TO 20 KT. THE WEAK TRPL WAVE CONTINUES SLOWLY WWD TO 54W BUT THE MODEL SHOWS NO DEVELOPMENT. WEAK PRES PATTERN REMAINDER OF AREA. FOR DAY 4 WITH THE MID LEVEL BUBBLE NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR 30N68W THE WESTERLIES GRAB THE VORT CENTER NEAR 35N76W AND TAKE IT NE. INVERTED TROUGHING SETS UP OVER GULF WHILE THE TROUGH ALONG 50W MOVES WWD TO 56W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 4 A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE MID ATLC DROPS SE E OF 50W WITH SW WINDS TO 20 KT. THE WEAK TRPL WAVE MOVES W TO 59W BUT WEAKENS FURTHER. CARIB WINDS REMAIN MODERATE WHILE GULF WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT. FOR DAY 5 THE CUTOFF LOW NEAR 40N40W MAINTAINS A TROUGH SSW TO 24N50W WITH A MID LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 25W AND THE BUBBLE NE OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 27N72W. INVERTED TROUGHING AT MID LEVELS OVER THE WRN GULF AND TRPL ATLC ALONG 32W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5 THE GFS SHOWS A FAIRLY GOOD CIRCULATION OVER THE ERN ATLC NEAR 30W. OTHERWISE A WEAK ATLC RIDGE REMAINS ALONG 29N WITH MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES. WEAK TRPL WAVE ALONG 63W. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER RRG