000 AGXX40 KNHC 030507 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM EDT MON SEP 3 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS FALLING SLOWLY TONIGHT ALONG 55W AS THE WESTERLIES WEAKLY PENETRATE S OF 30N. A STRONG SHORTWAVE ALONG 53W N OF THE AREA THE MAIN INPETUS FOR THIS FALL. OTHERWISE A BUBBLE OF HIGH PRES MOVING W ALONG 25N THE PAST TWO DAYS IS OVER THE WRN BAHAMAS AND S FL TONIGHT MERGING WITH A MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS EXTENDING SE OVER THE GULF. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT ALL EYES ON HRCN FELIX NOW A CAT FIVE AND CONTINUING TO MOVE WWD OVER THE CENTRAL CARIB. THE ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS WSW ALONG 26N INTO THE GULF WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS N OF 20N. EVEN TRADES S OF 20N OVER THE ATLC ONLY 10 TO 15 KT. LATER DAY 1 SOME RESIDUAL MID LEVEL TROUGHING ALONG 58W AS THE WESTERLIES EXPLOIT A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPIC RIDGE. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 WEAK ATLC RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 20N WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS. CARIB WINDS 20 TO 25 KT OUTSIDE OF HRCN FELIX WHICH CONTINUES WWD. ATLC TRADES S OF 20N REMAIN 10 TO 15 KT. TRPL WAVES MOSTLY WEAK. FOR DAY 2 MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER SRN PLAINS SHIFTS E TO 85W AND APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING. ANOTHER PUSH OF IMPULSES FROM THE WESTERLIES SE OFF THE ERN COAST WILL PENETRATE S OF 30N W OF 50W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 LOOK FOR HRCN FELIX TO SLAM INTO NE HONDURAS AS IT MAINTAINS A WWD TRACK. GFS MODEL HINTS AT A TRPL WAVE ALONG 63W AND ANOTHER BACK ALONG 40W. THE ATLC RIDGE MAINLY E OF 60W WITH A WEAK BUBBLE OF HIGH PRES OVER THE NW GULF. WEAK LOW PRES EXPECTED ALONG 30N W OF 70W WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS. OUTLOOK PERIOD... FOR DAY 3 THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SE CONUS NEARLY STATIONARY. MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE SRN PLAINS WITH TROUGHING OVER THE SW ATLC ALONG 30N W OF 70W. ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF STRONG SHORTWAVES MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST/CANADIAN MARITIMES. MID LEVEL RIDGING HOLDS OVER SUBTROPIC ZONE WITH A CENTER NEAR 25N55W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 3 HRCN FELIX INLAND OVER NRN GUATEMALA AND SRN YUCATAN WEAKENING. GFS MODEL SHOWS LOW PRES CENTER NEAR 30N70W WITH MODERATE WINDS. OTHERWISE WINDS LIGHT AND PRES PATTERN WEAK. GFS MODEL HINTS AT A TRPL WAVE ALONG 45W. FOR DAY 4 MID LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS IT'S OWN ALONG 80W BUT GETS UNDERCUT BY TROUGHING OVER SW ATLC THAT WORKS IT'S WAY SW TOWARD FL. ON THE SURFACE DAY 4 MODERATE WINDS N OF 30N W OF 65W WITH SOME SORT OF STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE ATLC RIDGE ALONG 26N WWD INTO N CENTRAL GULF. WEAK TRPL WAVE ALONG 50W. SOME WEAK RETURN FLOW OVER WRN GULF AS SURFACE PRES FALL OVER SRN PLAINS. FOR DAY 5 STRONG SHORTWAVE N OF AREA CUTS OFF NEAR 44N46W WILL HAVE MINOR INPACT ON OUR REGION E OF 55W WITH SLIGHT HEIGHT FALLS. MID LEVEL RIDGING COVERS AREA FROM GULF EWD TO 40W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5 SOME HINT AT WEAK DEVELOPMENT OF TRPL WAVE ALONG 57W WITH MODERATE NE WINDS OVER ATLC N OF WAVE. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS OVER WRN GULF AND CARIB OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS IN TRADE AREAS. STILL SOME MODERATE NE AND E WINDS N OF 30N W OF 60W N OF A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... AMZ082 AMZ084 AMZ086...HURRICANE WARNING. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER RRG