000 AGXX40 KNHC 010528 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM EDT SAT SEP 01 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. A STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SRN PLAINS TONIGHT REMAINS STATIONARY. A LARGE TROUGH OFF THE MID ATLC IS LIFTING NE WITH A TROUGH AXIS BACK ACROSS THE NE GULF COAST. A BUBBLE OF HIGH PRES AT MID LEVELS NEAR 25N62W IS MOVING WWD. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT T.D. SIX OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING W 12 KT AND FORECAST TO BECOME A TRPL STORM LATER THIS MORNING. WEAK TRPL WAVES WERE ALONG 72W AND 82W MOVING W 12 KT. THE ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS WSW TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. WINDS OVER THE REGION ARE LIGHT TO MODERATE EXCEPT BETWEEN 55W AND 75W S OF 20N WHERE SPEEDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE COMMON. LATER DAY 1 HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE THE MID LEVELS WITH BUBBLES LOCATED NEAR 25N40W 25N67W AND OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND SW CONUS. THE WESTERLIES PENETRATE NO FURTHER THAN 33N ALONG 40W AND 68W. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 FORECAST T.S. SIX OR FELIX WILL CONTINUE ON A W TO WNW COURSE INTO THE SE CARIB AND SLOWLY INTENSIFY. WEAK LOW PRES WILL PERSIST OVER THE FL PANHANDLE WITH SW WINDS TO 15 KT OVER THE NE GULF. THE ATLC RIDGE WILL BE ANCHORED WITH A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 33N47W AND EXTEND SW TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. FOR DAY 2 THE GFS MODEL SHOWS THE BUBBLE OF HIGH PRES AT MID LEVELS JOINING WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE SRN PLAINS EFFECTIVELY BLOCKING ANY INTRUSION OF THE WESTERLIES W OF 70W..THUS THEY WILL TRY TO PENETRATE E OF 60W AND EXPLOIT A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVEL PRES FIELD. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 T.S. SIX OR FELIX WILL MOVE TO THE S CENTRAL CARIB. THE ATLC RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM 30N40W TO THE NRN BAHAMAS THEN W TO THE CENTRAL GULF. WINDS OVER THE REGION MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE EXCEPT FOR THE CARIB. NEXT TRPL WAVE MOVES TO NEAR 50W. OUTLOOK PERIOD... FOR DAY 3 MID LEVEL HIGH PRES DOMINATES THE GULF REGION AND BAHAMAS WITH A WEAK RIDGE E ALONG 24N. THE WESTERLIES TRY TO PENETRATE ALONG 57W WITH LITTLE SUCCESS BECAUSE THE FLOW N OF 35N IS FORECAST TO BE MOSTLY ZONAL. ON THE SURFACE DAY 3 FUTURE FELIX IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HRCN AS IT CROSSES 80W. THE ATLC RIDGE REMAINS ALONG 27N WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS. GFS MODEL NOT INTENSIFYING NEXT TRPL WAVES. FOR DAY 4 SOME EROSION OF MID LEVEL RIDGE BETWEEN 50W AND 70W AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES BRUSH S OF 30N. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SRN PLAINS SHIFTS E TO ALONG 88W AS A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. ON THE SURFACE DAY 4 FUTURE HRCN FELIX WILL HEAD FOR THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST NEAR BELIZE. GFS MODEL SHOWS NEXT TRPL WAVES REMAINING WEAK ALONG 65W AND 47W. ATLC RIDGE HOLDS FIRM WSW TO THE NRN BAHAMAS WITH A BUBBLE OVER THE WRN GULF. FOR DAY 5 MID LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS E TO 80W AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE RELENTLESS WESTERLIES CONTINUE TO TRY TO CARVE OUT A TROUGH BETWEEN 45W AND 65W AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVES SE OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5 FUTURE HRCN FELIX FORECAST TO MOVE INTO YUCATAN AREA. GFS MODEL SHOWS SOME ACTION WITH A WAVE ALONG 50W WHILE ONE ALONG 70W REMAINS WEAK. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE ATLC RIDGE WITH IT'S AXIS REMAINING ALONG 26N. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... AMZ087..TRPL STORM WARNING. CARIBBEAN... AMZ086..TRPL STORM WARNING. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER RRG