000 AGXX40 KNHC 310505 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM EDT FRI AUG 31 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. THE WESTERLIES TONIGHT CONTINUE TO EXPLOIT THE WEAKNESS IN THE PRES FIELD AT MID LEVELS BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. WEAK IMPULSES CONTINUE TO WORK THEIR WAY SE THEN LIFT NE E OF 70W. OTHERWISE A LARGE MID LEVEL SUMMER RIDGE AT MID LEVELS LIES OVER THE ATLC E OF 65W TO THE CANARIES AND NE AFRICA. A SECOND MID LEVEL RIDGE LIES OVER THE SW CONUS EXTENDING SE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT ONE TRPL WAVE E OF THE WINDWARDS HAS A WEAK LOW CENTER AND IS MOVING W 15 KT. A SECOND WAVE IN THE W CENTRAL CARIB HAS LITTLE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH IT. A WEAK LOW NEAR 31N73W IS MOVING NE. THE ATLC RIDGE IS WEAK AND EXTENDS W TO 70W. TRADES ARE MOSTLY 10 TO 15 KT EXCEPT 15 TO 20 KT FROM 18N TO 22N E OF THE ISLANDS AND OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIB. LATER DAY 1 SOME EXPANSION OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD AND BACK OVER THE SE CONUS. OTHERWISE MID LEVEL RIDGES REMAIN IN PLACE. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 THE ATLC RIDGE TRIES TO DEFINE IT'S SELF WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING WSW TO THE SE BAHAMAS. WINDS CHANGE LITTLE. GULF WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. GFS MODEL PICKS UP ON NEXT WAVE MOVING W TO 35W. FOR DAY 2..THE FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER..THE GFS MODEL STAYS WITH LAST NIGHTS SCENARIO OF MOVING A MID LEVEL BUBBLE OF HIGH PRES WWD ALONG 25N TO 68W. THIS WILL BLOCK THE WESTERLIES FROM PENETRATING S OF 31N. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 THE ATLC RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH A NEW 1021 MB CENTER NEAR 27N60W. ELY TRADES PICK UP TO 20 KT E OF 50W AND OVER THE CARIB E OF 75W. GULF WINDS INCREASE A BIT OVER THE NE SECTION WITH WEAK LOW PRES OVER THE FL PANHANDLE. OUTLOOK PERIOD... FOR DAY 3 THE MID LEVEL BUBBLE CONTINUES IT'S WWD DRIFT TO 25N80W THUS ALLOWING THE WESTERLIES A TRACK FURTHER E OF 60W TO PENETRATE S OF 31N. ON THE SURFACE DAY 3 A TRPL WAVE MOVES TO 50W BUT THE GFS MODEL SHOWS NO DEVELOPMENT. THE ATLC RIDGE REMAINS WEAK ALONG 26N. LITTLE CHANGE TO WINDS. FOR DAY 4 THE WESTERLIES TRY TO WORK A WEAKNESS IN THE PRES FIELD ALOGN 60W BUT SUBTROPIC HIGH PRES QUICKLY WORKS WWD ALONG 25N. THE MID LEVEL BUBBLE CONTINUES WWD TO 25N85W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 4 THE GFS STILL SHOWS A CIRCULATATION APPROACHING THE LEEWARDS BUT HASN'T JUMPED ON DEVELOPMENT. LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE WITH A WEAK RIDGE ALONG 27N FROM ATLC INTO THE GULF. FOR DAY 5 THE WESTERLIES CONTINUE TO SEND WEAK IMPULSES SE TOWARD THE WEAKNESS ALONG 60W BUT MID LEVEL HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO DIFLECT THEM. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5 A WEAK PRES PATTERN WILL PREVAIL BUT THE GFS MODEL SHOWS WEAK WAVES MOVING INTO THE AREA WITH ONE ALONG 60W BUT NO LONGER A CLOSED CIRCULATION. WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE REGION MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER RRG