000
AGXX40 KNHC 290619
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
215 AM EDT WED AUG 29 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH PRES RIDGE REMAINS ALONG THE GULF COAST MAINTAINING A LIGHT 
E-SE FLOW ACROSS ENTIRE GULF TONIGHT. THE RIDGE SETTLES SLOWLY 
SWD TO ALONG 27N THU AND TO 25N FRI THROUGH SUN. A WEAK FRONTAL 
TROUGH SLIDES SWD TO ALONG THE GULF COAST FRI NIGHT/SAT AND 
ESSENTIALLY STALLS ALONG THE GULF COAST. HOWEVER A WEAK PRESS 
GRADIENT THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD KEEPS WINDS LIGHT. 
THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 22N LATER 
TODAY AND THU WHEN NRN EXTENT OF A TRPCL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 
87W CROSSES THE AREA WITH ELY WINDS PICKING UP TO 15-20 KT
ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN TSTM ACTIVITY. 
  
SW N ATLC...
WEAK PRESS PATTERN IN PLACE WITH SUB NORMAL TRADES THE RULE OVER 
THE SW N ATLC. RECENT QUIKSCAT AND ASCAT PASSES CONFIRM THIS 
WITH WINDS OF 10 KT OVER MOST OF THE AREA. CHANGES ARE IN STORE 
FOR THE AREA AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESS CURRENTLY ABOUT 120 NM 
SE OF WILMINGTON NC SLIDES SWD TOWARD THE AREA. NWP MODELS IN 
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE FEATURE DOES MOVE INTO THE AREA BUT
SIMILARITIES END THERE AS THE MODELS PRESENT ALL SORTS OF 
SOLUTIONS. CURRENTLY THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE A HYBRID OF SORTS 
AS IT IS DETACHED FROM ANY FRONTAL SYSTEM AND DEEP CONVECTION 
APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING NEAR THE CENTER. SHOULD THE SYSTEM 
ACQUIRE MORE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS ALL BETS ARE OFF. REFER TO 
MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. FOR NOW WILL GO 
WITH THE PREMISE THE SYSTEM REMAINS A LOW CENTER AND GO WITH A 
FCST OF A BLEND OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS FOR TRACK AND 
MOVE THE SYSTEM INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY NEAR 31N77W THEN 
TO 29N77W THU/FRI BEFORE MOVING NE SAT AND SUN TO NEAR 31N74W
BY LATE SUN. SW WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KT E OF THE SYSTEM SAT AND 
SUN AS PRESS GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE RIDGE ON E SIDE. 

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC
SUB NORMAL ELY TRADES ARE THE RULE OVER THESE AREAS AS WELL AS 
THE TROUGH IN CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE ALONG 65W WEAKENS ITS WWD 
EXTENSION. THE PASSAGE OF A TRPCL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 67W
MAY ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN THE ELY WINDS TO 20+ KT OVER THE W 
CARIBBEAN THU AND FRI. TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 41W/42W
WITH 1011 MB LOW NEAR 11N SHOULD ENTER THE TRPCL N ATLC LATE THU
AND ERN CARIBBEAN LATE FRI THROUGH SUN. CONDITIONS ARE FCST TO 
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE WAVE TRACKS WWD AND 
AS SUCH THE FEATURE IS BEING MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF TROPICAL 
DEVELOPMENT. REFER TO MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL 
DETAILS. 

WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO... 
NONE.

FORECASTER COBB